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Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Wed, Jul 15, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hercilio Luz host Gremio Juventus in the Catarinense 2. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Hercilio Luz at 2 goals for, 0.75 against; Gremio Juventus at 1.13 for, 1.38 against. Head-to-head, Hercilio Luz have won 2 to Gremio Juventus's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 24, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.69 - 0.94) back Hercilio Luz to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Hercilio Luz
22%
Draws
18%
Gremio Juventus
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Hercilio Luz have won more games recently than Gremio Juventus.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Hercilio Luz taking it.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 20%
Gremio Juventus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hercilio Luz Gremio Juventus
Matches Played 27 22
Wins 10 5
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 2 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Catarinense 2
Gremio Juventus vs Hercilio Luz
0:1
Jan 23, 2022 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus
1:0
Nov 7, 2021 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus
1:2
Nov 4, 2021 Copa Santa Catarina
Gremio Juventus vs Hercilio Luz
1:1
Oct 27, 2021 Copa Santa Catarina
Gremio Juventus vs Hercilio Luz
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 58 / 100
Gremio Juventus 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hercilio Luz Gremio Juventus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hercilio Luz has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Gremio Juventus's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 22 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Difficult form: Gremio Juventus registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS Gremio Juventus
2 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz1392228:929
2CA Metropolitano1382321:1126
3Blumenau1373327:924
4Caravaggio1373331:1624
5Tubarao1365219:1023
6Guarani de Palhoca1343613:2115
7Fluminense-SC1342711:1614
8Nacao1335511:2014
9Gremio Juventus1332812:2011
10Jaragua-SC1301125:461