Sport Picks

Brazil

Catarinense 2

Hercilio Luz

2 - 0

Tubarao

Our Tip

Match Events

35'

Nando

41'

Vinicius Baracioli

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Hercilio Luz in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hercilio Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Hercilio Luz

22%

Draws

18%

Tubarao

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Hercilio Luz have won more games recently than Tubarao.
Model gives Hercilio Luz a 60% chance of winning this.
Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%

Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%

Tubarao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Hercilio Luz	Tubarao
Matches Played	27	28
Wins	12	10
Draws	6	8
Losses	9	10
Goals Scored	2.38	1.63
Goals Conceded	0.75	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 27, 2026 Catarinense 2

Hercilio Luz vs Tubarao

Possession: 50% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

2:0

Feb 24, 2019 Catarinense

Hercilio Luz vs Tubarao

Possession: 47% - 44% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

Jan 16, 2019 Catarinense

Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz

Possession: 42% - 57% Cards: 2 - 0

2:2

Nov 11, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina

Hercilio Luz vs Tubarao

Possession: 56% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

Nov 4, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina

Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz

Possession: 60% - 42% Cards: 1 - 0

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Nando

1 Goals

Assists Leader Vinicius Baracioli

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Tubarao Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 68 / 100

Tubarao 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Hercilio Luz Tubarao

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Hercilio Luz stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Hercilio Luz scored in 63% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Tubarao let in goals in 50% of their last 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS Tubarao

2.38 Goals Scored 1.63

0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25

100% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 50%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	15	11	2	2	31:9	35
2	Caravaggio	15	9	3	3	42:17	30
3	CA Metropolitano	15	9	2	4	25:17	29
4	Blumenau	15	8	3	4	31:12	27
5	Tubarao	15	6	5	4	22:15	23
6	Fluminense-SC	15	5	3	7	14:18	18
7	Nacao	15	4	5	6	14:22	17
8	Guarani de Palhoca	15	4	4	7	14:23	16
9	Gremio Juventus	15	4	2	9	13:21	14
10	Jaragua-SC	15	0	1	14	5:57	1