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Herediano vs Saprissa

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Alvarado, Heredia
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Rodriguez T.
13'
Brenes J.
46'
Sub
Roman Y. In: Araya R.
Out: Roman Y.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Herediano advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Herediano
28%
Draws
22%
Saprissa
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Herediano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Herediano carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Herediano's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Herediano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Herediano, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Herediano Clean Sheet 68%
Saprissa Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Herediano Saprissa
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 19 16
Draws 4 7
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 0.88 2.25
Goals Conceded 0.38 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Recopa de Costa Rica
Herediano vs Saprissa
1:0
May 17, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Saprissa
2:0
May 14, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Herediano
2:1
Mar 8, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Herediano
2:1
Jan 18, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Saprissa
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Fuller K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hernandez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Saprissa Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Herediano 59 / 100
Saprissa 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Herediano Saprissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Herediano's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Saprissa has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Herediano stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Herediano VS Saprissa
0.88 Goals Scored 2.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
25% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Herediano

(Home)
18 Jul
Herediano
1 : 0
Saprissa
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
17 May
Herediano
2 : 0
Saprissa
14 May
Saprissa
2 : 1
Herediano
10 May
Herediano
0 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

Saprissa

(Away)
18 Jul
Herediano
1 : 0
Saprissa
17 May
Herediano
2 : 0
Saprissa
14 May
Saprissa
2 : 1
Herediano
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Herediano1
Cartagines0
Saprissa3
Liberia1
Final
Herediano3
Saprissa2