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HFX Wanderers vs Valour

Canada Canada

Canadian Premier League 2025 Wanderers Grounds, Halifax, NS
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Facchineri G.
Own Goal
40'
Alphonse J.
57' Event
Coimbra T.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Canadian Premier League 2025 game between HFX Wanderers and Valour finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward HFX Wanderers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
HFX Wanderers
22%
Draws
18%
Valour
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: HFX Wanderers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • HFX Wanderers carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans HFX Wanderers's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
  • HFX Wanderers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
HFX Wanderers Clean Sheet 10%
Valour Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HFX Wanderers Valour
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.13 4
Goals Conceded 2 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 Canadian Premier League
Valour vs HFX Wanderers
0:3
Aug 22, 2025 Canadian Premier League
HFX Wanderers vs Valour
4:1
Jul 1, 2025 Canadian Premier League
HFX Wanderers vs Valour
3:1
Apr 26, 2025 Canadian Premier League
Valour vs HFX Wanderers
0:1
Sep 21, 2024 Canadian Premier League
Valour vs HFX Wanderers
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

HFX Wanderers Compare

Top Goalscorer Coimbra T.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Valour Compare

Top Goalscorer Ressurreicao D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 3.64
Avg xA / game 2.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HFX Wanderers 56 / 100
Valour 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HFX Wanderers Valour

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HFX Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valour let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

HFX Wanderers's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

HFX Wanderers went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

HFX Wanderers VS Valour
1.13 Goals Scored 4
2 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

HFX Wanderers

(Home)
24 Jul
HFX Wanderers
2 : 3
Supra du Quebec
18 Jul
Cavalry
1 : 1
HFX Wanderers
05 Jul
Pacific FC
1 : 2
HFX Wanderers
01 Jul
HFX Wanderers
1 : 3
Atletico Ottawa
26 Jun
HFX Wanderers
5 : 2
Pacific FC
Page 1 of 7

Valour

(Away)
18 Oct
Pacific FC
1 : 4
Valour
11 Oct
Valour
0 : 3
HFX Wanderers
05 Oct
Valour
3 : 3
Atletico Ottawa
28 Sept
Inter Toronto
1 : 0
Valour
20 Sept
Cavalry
3 : 0
Valour
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Forge FC281610251:2258
2Atletico Ottawa281511254:2856
3Cavalry28119847:3642
4HFX Wanderers281161141:3439
5Inter Toronto281081043:3838
6Valour28751635:6226
7Pacific FC28581530:5923
8Vancouver FC28491535:5721
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