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HJK vs Jaro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Bolt Arena, Helsinki
HJK Logo

HJK

3 - 0
FT
Jaro Logo

Jaro

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Cicale A.
Assist: Ylitolva M.
9' Event
Borchers M.
Assist: Kirilov M.
48'
Skau J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

HJK in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored HJK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
HJK
35%
Draws
13%
Jaro
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: HJK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • HJK have won more games recently than Jaro.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on HJK taking it.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
HJK Clean Sheet 20%
Jaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HJK Jaro
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 5
Draws 5 8
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Veikkausliiga
HJK vs Jaro
3:0
Jun 13, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs HJK
2:5
Jul 2, 2025 Veikkausliiga
HJK vs Jaro
2:3
May 11, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs HJK
0:3
Sep 13, 2015 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs HJK
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

HJK Compare

Top Goalscorer Cicale A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Borchers M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Jaro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HJK 85 / 100
Jaro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HJK Jaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HJK Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaro has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

HJK's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

HJK went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

HJK VS Jaro
1.13 Goals Scored 0.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

HJK

(Home)
08 Oct
HJK
6 : 0
VPS
18 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1
HJK
13 Sept
KuPS
0 : 0
HJK
09 Sept
HJK
2 : 1
Inter Turku
05 Sept
Inter Turku
1 : 0
HJK
Page 1 of 6

Jaro

(Away)
18 Sept
Lahti
1 : 1
Jaro
12 Sept
Jaro
1 : 1
SJK
08 Sept
Ilves
2 : 0
Jaro
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
22 Aug
Jaro
0 : 1
AC Oulu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)