Sport Picks

Stadium Background

HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split

Croatia Croatia

HNL Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Sego M.
Assist: Pukstas R.
46'
Sub
Custovic K. In: Pranjic J.
Out: Custovic K.
46'
Sub
Acapandie M. In: Hodak L.
Out: Acapandie M.

AI Match Summary

The HNL game between HNK Gorica and Hajduk Split finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hajduk Split.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
HNK Gorica
20%
Draws
48%
Hajduk Split
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hajduk Split

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • HNK Gorica haven't matched Hajduk Split's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Hajduk Split's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular HNL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Hajduk Split have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
HNK Gorica Clean Sheet 10%
Hajduk Split Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HNK Gorica Hajduk Split
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 10 20
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.24 2.16
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split
1:2
Apr 12, 2026 HNL
Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
1:0
Jan 31, 2026 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split
1:0
Oct 24, 2025 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split
1:3
Aug 10, 2025 HNL
Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

HNK Gorica Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Hajduk Split Compare

Top Goalscorer Sego M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Livaja M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HNK Gorica 26 / 100
Hajduk Split 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HNK Gorica Hajduk Split

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hajduk Split Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

HNK Gorica scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: HNK Gorica remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Hajduk Split conceded in 52% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

HNK Gorica VS Hajduk Split
1 Goals Scored 3
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

HNK Gorica

(Home)
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
09 Sept
Uskok Klis
1 : 3
HNK Gorica
05 Sept
Din. Zagreb
1 : 0
HNK Gorica
31 Aug
HNK Gorica
0 : 0
Rijeka
Page 1 of 6

Hajduk Split

(Away)
20 Sept
Rijeka
3 : 0
Hajduk Split
13 Sept
Hajduk Split
1 : 0
Slaven Belupo
08 Sept
Vardarac Vardaroc
0 : 2
Hajduk Split
06 Sept
Rudes
0 : 4
Hajduk Split
31 Aug
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Lok. Zagreb
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5:12 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 10:24 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)