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Stadium Background

Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Lemperle T.
29' Event
Harres P.
41' Event
Lemperle T.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Hoffenheim and Holstein Kiel finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hoffenheim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Hoffenheim
20%
Draws
50%
Holstein Kiel
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Holstein Kiel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hoffenheim come out ahead of Holstein Kiel on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Hoffenheim's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Hoffenheim have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Hoffenheim Clean Sheet 17%
Holstein Kiel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hoffenheim Holstein Kiel
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.87 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Club Friendly
Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel
3:1
Jan 18, 2025 Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim
1:3
Aug 24, 2024 Bundesliga
Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel
3:2
Oct 26, 2021 DFB Pokal
Hoffenheim vs Holstein Kiel
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hoffenheim Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemperle T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Moerstedt M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Holstein Kiel Compare

Top Goalscorer Harres P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hoffenheim 41 / 100
Holstein Kiel 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hoffenheim Holstein Kiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hoffenheim scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Holstein Kiel has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 4.75 goals.

Recent resilience: Hoffenheim stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hoffenheim VS Holstein Kiel
2.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Hoffenheim

(Home)
20 Sept
Paderborn
3 : 1
Hoffenheim
17 Sept
OFI Crete
2 : 0
Hoffenheim
12 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 1
VfB Stuttgart
05 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 3
Dortmund
29 Aug
1. FC Koln
3 : 2
Hoffenheim
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Holstein Kiel

(Away)
19 Sept
Holstein Kiel
1 : 1
VfL Osnabruck
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0
Holstein Kiel
05 Sept
Holstein Kiel
2 : 2
Nurnberg
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0
Holstein Kiel
22 Aug
Munich 1860
0 : 2
Holstein Kiel
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