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Holyhead vs Caersws FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru North
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Holyhead host Caersws FC in the Cymru North. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Caersws FC have shipped 1.48 goals a game lately, while Holyhead have conceded 1.55 and scored 1.45. Head-to-head, Holyhead have won 3 to Caersws FC's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Jan 24, 2026, ending 2:2. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 2.13) point toward Caersws FC. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Holyhead
20%
Draws
57%
Caersws FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Caersws FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Caersws FC have won more games recently than Holyhead.
  • Win probability leans Caersws FC's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Cymru North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Holyhead Clean Sheet 10%
Caersws FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Holyhead Caersws FC
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 11 16
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.45 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Cymru North
Caersws FC vs Holyhead
2:2
Sep 27, 2025 Cymru North
Holyhead vs Caersws FC
1:1
Apr 28, 2018 Cymru Alliance
Holyhead vs Caersws FC
4:1
Oct 28, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Caersws FC vs Holyhead
0:3
Apr 15, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Caersws FC vs Holyhead
2:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Holyhead 10 / 100
Caersws FC 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Holyhead Caersws FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caersws FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Holyhead's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Caersws FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Holyhead stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Holyhead VS Caersws FC
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Holyhead

(Home)
02 Oct
Denbigh
2 : 4
Holyhead
26 Sept
Holyhead
0 : 2
Guilsfield
12 Sept
Holyhead
0 : 1
Newtown
05 Sept
Llanuwchllyn
4 : 0
Holyhead
31 Aug
Holyhead
2 : 2
Porthmadog
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Caersws FC

(Away)
03 Oct
Caersws FC
3 : 3
Bala
26 Sept
Llanuwchllyn
2 : 5
Caersws FC
12 Sept
Caersws FC
0 : 2
Brickfield Rangers
04 Sept
Ruthin Town
0 : 3
Caersws FC
31 Aug
Caersws FC
2 : 0
Buckley
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brickfield Rangers 10 9 0 1 26:6 27
2 Newtown 9 7 1 1 18:3 22
3 Mold Alexandra 10 6 2 2 24:13 20
4 Porthmadog 10 6 2 2 17:11 20
5 Bala 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
6 Caersws FC 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
7 Bangor 1876 10 5 1 4 23:18 16
8 Guilsfield 10 4 4 2 16:12 16
9 Buckley 10 3 3 4 22:17 12
10 Llanuwchllyn 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
11 Rhyl 9 2 3 4 17:19 9
12 Ruthin Town 10 2 2 6 9:20 8
13 Denbigh 10 2 1 7 18:23 7
14 Holyhead 9 2 1 6 11:18 7
15 Gresford 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
16 Penrhyncoch 10 0 1 9 4:30 1
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