Sport Picks

Wales

Cymru North 2025/2026

Denbigh

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Holywell Town FC play Denbigh in the Cymru North 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Holywell Town FC averaged 2.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Denbigh averaged 1.61 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. In past meetings, Holywell Town FC won 4, Denbigh won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 27, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.44 for Holywell Town FC and 1.38 for Denbigh. This points to a Holywell Town FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%

Holywell Town FC

15%

Draws

32%

Denbigh

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Holywell Town FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Holywell Town FC picked up more points recently compared to Denbigh.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.44 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 89%

Over 2.5 Goals 77%

Over 3.5 Goals 46%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%

Holywell Town FC Clean Sheet 17%

Denbigh Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 80%

Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Holywell Town FC	Denbigh
Matches Played	34	31
Wins	18	12
Draws	8	4
Losses	8	15
Goals Scored	2.53	1.61
Goals Conceded	1.47	2.03
Expected Goals (xG)	2.75	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Cymru North

Holywell Town FC vs Denbigh

Possession: 51% - 52% Cards: 4 - 1

5:1

Aug 8, 2025 Cymru North

Denbigh vs Holywell Town FC

Possession: 55% - 48% Cards: 0 - 1

1:2

Jan 4, 2025 Cymru North

Denbigh vs Holywell Town FC

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 3 - 0

2:4

Sep 28, 2024 Cymru North

Holywell Town FC vs Denbigh

Possession: 46% - 48% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Mar 16, 2024 Cymru North

Holywell Town FC vs Denbigh

Possession: 40% - 45% Cards: 0 - 1

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Holywell Town FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Cooke J.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Edwards R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.12

Avg xA / game 1.38

Denbigh Compare

Top Goalscorer Vaughan A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Holywell Town FC 51 / 100

Denbigh 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Holywell Town FC Denbigh

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Holywell Town FC Win (1)

Secondary Pick Holywell Town FC & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.7%

2.22

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.6%

1.41

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Holywell Town FC attacking → ← attacking Denbigh

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Holywell Town FC scored in 88% of their last 34 games.

Denbigh let in goals in 94% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Holywell Town FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Denbigh lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

62 Points in last 5 40

2.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Llandudno FC	30	26	2	2	77:22	80
2	Airbus UK Broughton FC	30	24	3	3	93:22	75
3	Holywell Town FC	30	18	6	6	78:40	60
4	Newtown	30	15	3	12	51:49	48
5	Rhyl	30	14	4	12	46:55	46
6	Guilsfield	30	13	4	13	50:48	43
7	Mold Alexandra	30	12	5	13	38:45	41
8	Denbigh	30	12	4	14	52:59	40
9	Caersws FC	30	11	4	15	46:51	37
10	Brickfield Rangers	30	11	4	15	39:49	37
11	Holyhead	30	10	6	14	44:49	36
12	Penrhyncoch	30	10	5	15	45:53	35
13	Buckley	30	9	3	18	50:77	30
14	Flint Mountain	30	9	2	19	39:61	29
15	Gresford	30	8	4	18	47:87	28
16	Ruthin Town	30	6	5	19	36:64	23