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Hong Kong vs India - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

Asian Cup Kai Tak Sports Park, Hongkong
Hong Kong Logo

Hong Kong

1 - 0
FT
India Logo

India

Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Juninho
40'
Fernandes B.
46'
Sub
Merkies R. In: Mahama A.
Out: Merkies R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Hong Kong
20%
Draws
11%
India
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hong Kong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Hong Kong have won more games recently than India.
  • Model gives Hong Kong a 69% chance of winning this.
  • Hong Kong have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Hong Kong, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Hong Kong Clean Sheet 68%
India Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hong Kong India
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 5
Draws 6 10
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.79 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Asian Cup
India vs Hong Kong
2:1
Jun 10, 2025 Asian Cup
Hong Kong vs India
1:0
Jun 14, 2022 Asian Cup
India vs Hong Kong
4:0
Oct 4, 2010 Friendly International
India vs Hong Kong
0:1
Jan 14, 2009 Friendly International
Hong Kong vs India
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hong Kong 95 / 100
India 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hong Kong India

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hong Kong Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hong Kong's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: India conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Hong Kong went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hong Kong VS India
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hong Kong

(Home)
03 Oct
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Cambodia
30 Sept
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Brunei
27 Sept
Hong Kong
4 : 0
Laos
09 Jun
Cambodia
2 : 0
Hong Kong
05 Jun
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Mongolia
Page 1 of 6

India

(Away)
06 Oct
India
1 : 6
Uruguay
03 Oct
India
0 : 4
Brazil
25 Sept
India
1 : 1
Panama
09 Jun
Tajikistan
1 : 1
India
05 Jun
Tajikistan
3 : 1
India
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tajikistan 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
2 Philippines 6 4 2 0 16:6 14
3 Maldives 6 1 0 5 3:13 3
4 Timor-Leste 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Yemen 6 4 2 0 20:1 14
2 Lebanon 6 4 1 1 14:2 13
3 Bhutan 6 1 1 4 4:16 4
4 Brunei 6 1 0 5 3:22 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Singapore 6 4 2 0 8:4 14
2 Hong Kong 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
3 Bangladesh 6 1 2 3 6:8 5
4 India 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand 6 5 0 1 16:5 15
2 Turkmenistan 6 4 0 2 11:7 12
3 Sri Lanka 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
4 Chinese Taipei 6 0 0 6 5:19 0
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Syria 6 6 0 0 21:2 18
2 Myanmar 6 4 0 2 8:11 12
3 Afghanistan 6 0 2 4 4:11 2
4 Pakistan 6 0 2 4 2:11 2
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam 6 6 0 0 17:2 18
2 Malaysia 6 3 0 3 10:10 9
3 Laos 6 2 0 4 4:16 6
4 Nepal 6 1 0 5 5:8 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)