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Hong Kong vs South Korea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

EAFF E-1 Football Championship Yongin Mireu Stadium, Yongin
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Kang Sang-Yoon
Assist: Seo Min-Woo
46'
Sub
Kim Tae-Hyeon In: Mo Jae-Hyeon
Out: Kim Tae-Hyeon
46'
Sub
Cho Hyun-Taek In: Moon Seon-Min
Out: Cho Hyun-Taek

AI Match Summary

South Korea in this EAFF E-1 Football Championship matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored South Korea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Hong Kong
15%
Draws
31%
South Korea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hong Kong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Hong Kong have won more games recently than South Korea.
  • Hong Kong are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors South Korea here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Hong Kong Clean Sheet 19%
South Korea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hong Kong South Korea
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 18 17
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 2.08 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2025 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
Hong Kong vs South Korea
0:2
Jul 24, 2022 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
South Korea vs Hong Kong
3:0
Dec 11, 2019 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
South Korea vs Hong Kong
2:0
Feb 7, 2010 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
South Korea vs Hong Kong
5:0
Dec 4, 2003 EAFF E-1 Football Championship
Hong Kong vs South Korea
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hong Kong Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

South Korea Compare

Top Goalscorer Kang Sang-Yoon
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee Ho-Jae
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hong Kong 85 / 100
South Korea 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hong Kong South Korea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hong Kong Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hong Kong's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 38 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Hong Kong stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

South Korea has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hong Kong VS South Korea
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hong Kong

(Home)
03 Oct
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Cambodia
30 Sept
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Brunei
27 Sept
Hong Kong
4 : 0
Laos
09 Jun
Cambodia
2 : 0
Hong Kong
05 Jun
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Mongolia
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South Korea

(Away)
06 Oct
South Korea
2 : 0
Uzbekistan
02 Oct
South Korea
0 : 0
Venezuela
28 Sept
South Korea
1 : 4
Uruguay
24 Sept
South Korea
3 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
South Africa
1 : 0
South Korea
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