Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hornchurch vs Ebbsfleet

England England

National League South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Balanta A.

AI Match Summary

The National League South 2025/2026 game between Hornchurch and Ebbsfleet finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hornchurch.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Hornchurch
17%
Draws
13%
Ebbsfleet
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Hornchurch

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Hornchurch carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Hornchurch taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Hornchurch Clean Sheet 20%
Ebbsfleet Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hornchurch Ebbsfleet
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 14 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 National League South
Hornchurch vs Ebbsfleet
1:0
Sep 6, 2025 National League South
Ebbsfleet vs Hornchurch
1:1
Sep 1, 2020 Club Friendly
Hornchurch vs Ebbsfleet
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hornchurch Compare

Top Goalscorer Balanta A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Ebbsfleet Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hornchurch 67 / 100
Ebbsfleet 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hornchurch Ebbsfleet

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hornchurch scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Ebbsfleet has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Hornchurch has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Hornchurch VS Ebbsfleet
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hornchurch

(Home)
28 Jul
Enfield Town
4 : 2
Hornchurch
25 Jul
Hornchurch
3 : 1
Tottenham U21
21 Jul
Hornchurch
2 : 1
Leyton Orient
18 Jul
Hornchurch
1 : 1
Norwich U21
14 Jul
Hornchurch
3 : 0
Millwall U21
Page 1 of 6

Ebbsfleet

(Away)
28 Jul
Cray Valley
2 : 3
Ebbsfleet
24 Jul
Ebbsfleet
1 : 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University
21 Jul
Ebbsfleet
1 : 2
West Ham U21
14 Jul
Aveley
1 : 4
Ebbsfleet
11 Jul
Wycombe
4 : 0
Ebbsfleet
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Worthing FC462591299:5284
2Hornchurch4623121181:6481
3Torquay462481487:6280
4Dorking Wanderers4623101378:6179
5Hemel Hempstead4623101355:4879
6Weston-super-Mare462391461:4878
7Maidenhead4622111366:4177
8Maidstone4622111372:5077
9Ebbsfleet4622111373:5477
10Chelmsford4621101573:6273
11Chesham462191668:5572
12AFC Totton462062060:7966
13Dagenham & Red.4617131661:6264
14Tonbridge4616121866:6560
15Horsham FC4615141753:5459
16Slough Town461592269:8754
17Salisbury4614112150:6553
18Hampton & Richmond4614112156:7253
19Farnborough4614112172:9253
20Dover Ath.4613112260:7550
21Bath City4610132350:7743
22Chippenham Town461192653:8042
23Enfield Town469132455:8240
24Eastbourne Borough46992859:9036
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Play Offs)