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Hostert vs Progres Niedercorn - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Luxembourg Luxembourg

BGL Ligue Stade Jos Becker, Hostert
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hostert host Progres Niedercorn in the BGL Ligue. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Progres Niedercorn have shipped 1.63 goals a game lately, while Hostert have conceded 1.72 and scored 1.5. Past meetings favor Progres Niedercorn slightly — 0-5-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 15, 2026, ending 1:5. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.56, favoring Progres Niedercorn. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Hostert
30%
Draws
39%
Progres Niedercorn
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Progres Niedercorn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Progres Niedercorn come out ahead of Hostert on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Progres Niedercorn's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Progres Niedercorn have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Hostert Clean Sheet 15%
Progres Niedercorn Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hostert Progres Niedercorn
Matches Played 32 38
Wins 12 15
Draws 6 6
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.5 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 BGL Ligue
Hostert vs Progres Niedercorn
1:5
Oct 1, 2025 BGL Ligue
Progres Niedercorn vs Hostert
2:1
May 4, 2025 BGL Ligue
Hostert vs Progres Niedercorn
1:3
Nov 24, 2024 BGL Ligue
Progres Niedercorn vs Hostert
3:2
Mar 29, 2023 BGL Ligue
Progres Niedercorn vs Hostert
6:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hostert 11 / 100
Progres Niedercorn 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hostert Progres Niedercorn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Progres Niedercorn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progres Niedercorn's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 38 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.80 goals when they meet.

Hostert scored in 75% of their last 32 games.

Hostert has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hostert VS Progres Niedercorn
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Hostert

(Home)
20 Sept
Alisontia Steinsel
1 : 2
Hostert
16 Sept
Hostert
1 : 1
Jeunesse Esch
12 Sept
Hostert
0 : 0
Dudelange
05 Sept
Victoria Rosport
0 : 2
Hostert
30 Aug
Hostert
0 : 2
Differdange
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Progres Niedercorn

(Away)
20 Sept
FC Kopstal 33
0 : 7
Progres Niedercorn
16 Sept
Progres Niedercorn
0 : 0
Racing Luxembourg
12 Sept
Wiltz
1 : 2
Progres Niedercorn
06 Sept
Progres Niedercorn
3 : 0
Rumelange
30 Aug
Mondorf
2 : 1
Progres Niedercorn
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UNA Strassen 8 8 0 0 17:2 24
2 Differdange 8 7 0 1 19:5 21
3 Mondorf 8 6 0 2 16:11 18
4 Racing Luxembourg 8 5 2 1 21:8 17
5 Progres Niedercorn 8 5 1 2 13:5 16
6 Kaerjeng 8 5 0 3 23:15 15
7 Bissen 8 5 0 3 18:11 15
8 FC Residence Walferdange 8 5 0 3 16:10 15
9 Hostert 8 3 2 3 14:11 11
10 Jeunesse Esch 8 2 1 5 14:17 7
11 Dudelange 8 2 1 5 8:15 7
12 Rumelange 8 2 0 6 8:23 6
13 Victoria Rosport 8 1 2 5 11:20 5
14 Ettelbruck 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
15 Wiltz 8 1 1 6 14:22 4
16 Hesperange 8 0 0 8 2:30 -12
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - BGL Ligue (Relegation)