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Houtvenne vs Merelbeke - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belgium Belgium

National Division 1 - VV
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Houtvenne host Merelbeke in the National Division 1 - VV. Little to choose between these two on current form. Merelbeke have shipped 1.52 goals a game lately, while Houtvenne have conceded 1.74 and scored 1.74. Head-to-head, Houtvenne have won 1 to Merelbeke's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 11, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 1.44, favoring Houtvenne. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Houtvenne
20%
Draws
29%
Merelbeke
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Houtvenne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Houtvenne lately — more wins on the board than Merelbeke.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular National Division 1 - VV form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Houtvenne Clean Sheet 16%
Merelbeke Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Houtvenne Merelbeke
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 14 13
Draws 3 4
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.74 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.74 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 National Division 1 - VV
Merelbeke vs Houtvenne
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 National Division 1 - VV
Houtvenne vs Merelbeke
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Houtvenne 31 / 100
Merelbeke 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Houtvenne Merelbeke

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Merelbeke Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Merelbeke conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Attacking prowess: Houtvenne scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Houtvenne remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Houtvenne VS Merelbeke
2.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Houtvenne

(Home)
17 Oct
K. Lyra-Lierse
0 : 1
Houtvenne
10 Oct
Houtvenne
2 : 0
Knokke
03 Oct
Hoogstraten
3 : 0
Houtvenne
30 Sept
Houtvenne
2 : 1
Mandel United
26 Sept
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0
Houtvenne
Page 1 of 7

Merelbeke

(Away)
18 Oct
Knokke
0 : 3
Merelbeke
11 Oct
Merelbeke
0 : 2
Mandel United
04 Oct
Tienen
0 : 0
Merelbeke
30 Sept
Merelbeke
1 : 1
Dessel
27 Sept
Merelbeke
0 : 1
Eupen
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Houtvenne 8 7 0 1 20:8 21
2 Mandel United 8 5 1 2 13:6 16
3 Leuven B 8 5 1 2 19:14 16
4 SK Roeselare 8 4 3 1 12:4 15
5 Merelbeke 8 4 2 2 13:7 14
6 Belisia Bilzen 8 3 2 3 16:15 11
7 Dessel 8 3 2 3 16:17 11
8 Knokke 8 3 1 4 10:13 10
9 Hoogstraten 8 2 4 2 19:15 10
10 Thes Sport 8 2 4 2 12:11 10
11 Tienen 7 2 3 2 14:10 9
12 Heist 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
13 Cercle Brugge 2 8 2 2 4 11:17 8
14 K. Lyra-Lierse 8 1 3 4 13:19 6
15 KRC Harelbeke 8 1 1 6 6:23 4
16 Zelzate 8 0 3 5 7:19 3
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