Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hwaseong vs Busan

South Korea South Korea

K League 2 Hwaseong Stadium, Hwaseong
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Lee Dong-Su
Own Goal
21' Event
Jegal Jae-Min
Assist: Kim D.
30' Event
Gabriel Honorio
Assist: Lee Dong-Su

AI Match Summary

The K League 2 game between Hwaseong and Busan finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hwaseong.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Hwaseong
30%
Draws
23%
Busan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hwaseong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Hwaseong haven't matched Busan's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Hwaseong taking it.
  • Regular K League 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Hwaseong Clean Sheet 68%
Busan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hwaseong Busan
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.59 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 K League 2
Busan vs Hwaseong
0:0
May 17, 2026 K League 2
Hwaseong vs Busan
3:2
Sep 28, 2025 K League 2
Hwaseong vs Busan
1:1
Jul 19, 2025 K League 2
Hwaseong vs Busan
1:0
Apr 27, 2025 K League 2
Busan vs Hwaseong
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hwaseong Compare

Top Goalscorer Jegal Jae-Min
1 Goals
Assists Leader Petrov S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Busan Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Honorio
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cristian Renato
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hwaseong 59 / 100
Busan 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hwaseong Busan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hwaseong Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hwaseong's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Busan has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Hwaseong has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hwaseong VS Busan
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Hwaseong

(Home)
12 Sept
Ansan Greeners
0 : 2
Hwaseong
05 Sept
Cheonan City
1 : 1
Hwaseong
29 Aug
Hwaseong
2 : 1
Cheongju
23 Aug
Jeonnam
1 : 0
Hwaseong
15 Aug
Busan
0 : 0
Hwaseong
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Busan

(Away)
13 Sept
Busan
2 : 0
Gimhae
05 Sept
Busan
0 : 1
Ansan Greeners
30 Aug
Suwon FC
2 : 1
Busan
22 Aug
Daegu
1 : 1
Busan
19 Aug
Busan
0 : 1
Bucheon FC 1995
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 39:20 53
2 Daegu 25 13 7 5 47:33 46
3 Suwon FC 24 12 9 3 47:29 45
4 Seoul E-Land 25 13 6 6 43:29 45
5 Hwaseong 25 12 7 6 39:25 43
6 Busan 25 12 5 8 41:33 41
7 Gyeongnam 24 8 9 7 31:30 33
8 Gimpo FC 24 7 11 6 30:30 32
9 Chungnam Asan 24 8 7 9 31:30 31
10 Seongnam 24 7 9 8 26:28 30
11 Yongin FC 24 5 11 8 31:35 26
12 Cheongju 25 4 14 7 28:39 26
13 Paju Frontier 24 7 5 12 22:28 26
14 Cheonan City 25 4 11 10 29:34 23
15 Ansan Greeners 25 6 4 15 25:46 22
16 Jeonnam 24 4 9 11 28:40 21
17 Gimhae 24 2 7 15 19:47 13
Promotion - K League 1 2027 (Main)
Promotion - K League 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - K League 2 (Relegation)