Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Iceland U21 vs Wales U21

Europe Europe

Euro U21 2025 Víkingsvöllur, Reykjavík
Our Tip

Match Events

35'
Ingason K. M.
35'
Hoole L.
37'
Sigurgeirsson I.

AI Match Summary

The Euro U21 2025 game between Iceland U21 and Wales U21 finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Wales U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Iceland U21
15%
Draws
32%
Wales U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Iceland U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Wales U21 haven't matched Iceland U21's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Iceland U21 a 53% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Wales U21 have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Iceland U21 Clean Sheet 20%
Wales U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iceland U21 Wales U21
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.61 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2024 Euro U21
Iceland U21 vs Wales U21
1:2
Nov 16, 2023 Euro U21
Wales U21 vs Iceland U21
1:0
Feb 6, 2013 Friendly International
Wales U21 vs Iceland U21
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iceland U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Borgthorsson O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Wales U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Cotterill J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iceland U21 85 / 100
Wales U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iceland U21 Wales U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Iceland U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iceland U21 scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Wales U21 conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Iceland U21 has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Iceland U21 VS Wales U21
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Iceland U21

(Home)
25 Sept
Iceland U21
1 : 1
France U21
30 Mar
France U21
2 : 1
Iceland U21
26 Mar
Iceland U21
6 : 2
Estonia U21
13 Nov
Luxembourg U21
1 : 3
Iceland U21
14 Oct
Iceland U21
2 : 1
Luxembourg U21
Page 1 of 6

Wales U21

(Away)
31 Mar
Denmark U21
4 : 0
Wales U21
27 Mar
Wales U21
2 : 0
Belarus U21
14 Nov
Belarus U21
3 : 0
Wales U21
14 Oct
Austria U21
0 : 2
Wales U21
10 Oct
Wales U21
0 : 7
Belgium U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Italy U21 10 6 4 0 27:4 22
2 Norway U21 10 6 1 3 28:11 19
3 Ireland U21 10 5 4 1 24:12 19
4 Turkey U21 10 4 1 5 21:15 13
5 Latvia U21 10 3 2 5 10:18 11
6 San Marino U21 10 0 0 10 1:51 0
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain U21 10 9 1 0 28:5 28
2 Belgium U21 10 6 1 3 13:6 19
3 Scotland U21 10 5 1 4 19:11 16
4 Hungary U21 10 5 1 4 12:8 16
5 Kazakhstan U21 10 3 0 7 13:24 9
6 Malta U21 10 0 0 10 4:35 0
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands U21 10 10 0 0 32:3 30
2 Georgia U21 10 6 1 3 14:10 19
3 Sweden U21 10 5 2 3 25:10 17
4 North Macedonia U21 10 4 0 6 8:15 12
5 Moldova U21 10 2 1 7 7:20 7
6 Gibraltar U21 10 1 0 9 3:31 3
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany U21 10 8 2 0 35:10 26
2 Poland U21 10 7 1 2 24:10 22
3 Bulgaria U21 10 4 3 3 17:12 15
4 Kosovo U21 10 3 3 4 10:17 12
5 Estonia U21 10 2 1 7 7:31 7
6 Israel U21 10 1 0 9 5:18 3
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Romania U21 10 7 1 2 23:10 22
2 Finland U21 10 6 2 2 21:8 20
3 Switzerland U21 10 5 3 2 21:12 18
4 Albania U21 10 5 1 4 12:17 16
5 Montenegro U21 10 2 1 7 8:19 7
6 Armenia U21 10 0 2 8 2:21 2
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 England U21 10 8 1 1 41:6 25
2 Ukraine U21 10 8 0 2 20:7 24
3 Serbia U21 10 5 1 4 13:18 16
4 Northern Ireland U21 10 3 2 5 10:10 11
5 Luxembourg U21 10 2 2 6 6:23 8
6 Azerbaijan U21 10 1 0 9 4:30 3
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal U21 10 9 0 1 33:6 27
2 Croatia U21 10 7 1 2 20:14 22
3 Greece U21 10 5 2 3 16:10 17
4 Faroe Islands U21 10 3 1 6 11:24 10
5 Belarus U21 10 1 3 6 6:20 6
6 Andorra U21 10 0 3 7 4:16 3
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slovenia U21 8 5 2 1 13:7 17
2 France U21 8 5 1 2 22:6 16
3 Austria U21 8 4 3 1 12:6 15
4 Cyprus U21 8 1 2 5 7:23 5
5 Bosnia & Herzegovina U21 8 1 0 7 5:17 3
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Denmark U21 8 5 2 1 18:8 17
2 Czech Republic U21 8 4 2 2 13:11 14
3 Wales U21 8 4 2 2 13:11 14
4 Iceland U21 8 3 0 5 9:14 9
5 Lithuania U21 8 1 0 7 7:16 3
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)