Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Magnusson H.
10'
10'
Petkov L.
27'
27'
Velkovski D.
AI Match Summary
Iceland in this UEFA Nations League matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Iceland.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
30%
16%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Iceland
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Iceland lately — more wins on the board than Bulgaria.
- Iceland are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Iceland Clean Sheet 10%
Bulgaria Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Iceland | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 6 |
| Draws | 5 | 11 |
| Losses | 14 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.72 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 3, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Iceland vs Bulgaria
3:0
Sep 7, 2005 World Championship
Bulgaria vs Iceland
3:2
Sep 4, 2004 World Championship
Iceland vs Bulgaria
1:3
Jun 6, 2001 World Championship
Iceland vs Bulgaria
1:1
Mar 24, 2001 World Championship
Bulgaria vs Iceland
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Iceland Compare
Top Goalscorer Oskarsson O.
2 Goals Assists Leader Ellertsson M. E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Bulgaria Compare
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Iceland 83 / 100
Bulgaria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Iceland Bulgaria
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Iceland Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Iceland found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Bulgaria conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.
Iceland has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Iceland VS Bulgaria
0.75 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Iceland
(Home) 03 Oct
Iceland
3 : 0 Bulgaria
29 Sept
Luxembourg
0 : 3 Iceland
26 Sept
Iceland
1 : 1 Estonia
10 Jun
Argentina
3 : 0 Iceland
31 May
Japan
1 : 0 Iceland
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Iceland
3 : 0 Bulgaria
26 Sept
Iceland
1 : 1 Estonia
13 Oct
Iceland
2 : 2 France
10 Oct
Iceland
3 : 5 Ukraine
05 Sept
Iceland
5 : 0 Azerbaijan
Page 1 of 2
Bulgaria
(Away) 03 Oct
Iceland
3 : 0 Bulgaria
29 Sept
Bulgaria
0 : 0 Estonia
26 Sept
Bulgaria
1 : 2 Luxembourg
05 Jun
Moldova
2 : 2 Bulgaria
01 Jun
Bulgaria
0 : 1 Montenegro
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Iceland
3 : 0 Bulgaria
05 Jun
Moldova
2 : 2 Bulgaria
30 Mar
Indonesia
0 : 1 Bulgaria
27 Mar
Solomon Islands
2 : 10 Bulgaria
15 Nov
Turkey
2 : 0 Bulgaria
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:1 | 7 |
| 2 | Albania | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 3 | Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 4 | San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:14 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 3 | Armenia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Latvia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:4 | 1 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 2 | Moldova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:5 | 1 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:1 | 7 |
| 2 | Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | 1 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)
