Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ikorodu City vs Kwara

Nigeria Nigeria

NPFL Mobolaji Johnson Arena, Lagos
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Ezekiel S.
17'
26'
Sub
Oyedokun T. In: Temitope F.
Out: Oyedokun T.

AI Match Summary

Ikorodu City in this NPFL matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ikorodu City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Ikorodu City
11%
Draws
9%
Kwara
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Ikorodu City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ikorodu City lately — more wins on the board than Kwara.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Ikorodu City taking it.
  • Regular NPFL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Ikorodu City Clean Sheet 68%
Kwara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ikorodu City Kwara
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 2 1.25
Goals Conceded 2 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 NPFL
Ikorodu City vs Kwara
1:0
Aug 24, 2025 NPFL
Kwara vs Ikorodu City
0:0
Feb 9, 2025 NPFL
Ikorodu City vs Kwara
2:1
Sep 22, 2024 NPFL
Kwara vs Ikorodu City
0:0
May 10, 2023 Federation Cup
Ikorodu City vs Kwara
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ikorodu City Compare

Top Goalscorer Ezekiel S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Kwara Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ikorodu City 86 / 100
Kwara 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ikorodu City Kwara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IKO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ikorodu City scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Kwara conceded in 65% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Ikorodu City has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ikorodu City VS Kwara
2 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ikorodu City

(Home)
17 Jun
Nasarawa United
1 : 2
Ikorodu City
11 Jun
Ikorodu City
3 : 2
Barau
06 Jun
Ikorodu City
2 : 1
Enyimba International
01 Jun
Ikorodu City
2 : 0
Jigawa Golden Stars
24 May
Ikorodu City
1 : 2
Rangers International
Page 1 of 6

Kwara

(Away)
01 Jun
Kwara
0 : 1
Sokoto United
24 May
Bayelsa United
4 : 0
Kwara
10 May
Kwara
2 : 0
Enyimba International
03 May
Niger Tornadoes
2 : 2
Kwara
19 Apr
Kwara
2 : 1
Barau
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rangers International381911847:2768
2Rivers United381910944:3167
3Shooting381861441:4060
4Ikorodu City3816101243:3958
5Bendel3814141044:3856
6Nasarawa United381681437:3456
7Abia Warriors381671531:3455
8Barau3813131234:3052
9Katsina Utd3814101436:3952
10Plateau United381551839:4050
11Enyimba International3813101544:4249
12Kun Khalifa3813101542:4049
13Warri Wolves3813101536:4149
14Niger Tornadoes381391637:3648
15Kano Pillars381561734:3948
16Kwara3813111432:3647
17Remo Stars381451942:4747
18El Kanemi Warriors381381727:4647
19Bayelsa United3811101737:4243
20Wikki Tourists389131636:4840
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)