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Ilkeston vs United of Manchester

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Le Fondre A.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Carter C.
66' Event
Kirby-Moore H.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Ilkeston and United of Manchester finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ilkeston.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Ilkeston
28%
Draws
50%
United of Manchester
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: United of Manchester

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and United of Manchester come out ahead of Ilkeston on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans United of Manchester's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 13%
United of Manchester Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilkeston United of Manchester
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.29 2
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.29 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs United of Manchester
3:2
Nov 29, 2025 NPL Premier Division
United of Manchester vs Ilkeston
2:1
Apr 12, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs United of Manchester
1:1
Aug 17, 2024 NPL Premier Division
United of Manchester vs Ilkeston
1:1
Jan 6, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs United of Manchester
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ilkeston Compare

Top Goalscorer Kirby-Moore H.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Carter C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

United of Manchester Compare

Top Goalscorer Sithole G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilkeston 22 / 100
United of Manchester 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilkeston United of Manchester

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

United of Manchester's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Ilkeston has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: United of Manchester has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ilkeston VS United of Manchester
1.29 Goals Scored 2
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.75
86% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 75%
29% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hebburn Town402310775:4179
2Hednesford402211762:3577
3United of Manchester402191065:4172
4Warrington Rylands401813959:4267
5Stockton4018121062:5063
6Lancaster4017111256:4562
7Gainsborough4016111350:4559
8Leek Town401771650:5258
9Cleethorpes4014131356:4755
10Ashton United4014111547:5453
11Ilkeston401571852:5452
12Bamber Bridge401481852:5250
13Guiseley401391846:5648
14Warrington Town4012121643:6348
15Hyde4011141558:6347
16Rushall4012111748:6147
17Whitby4010131743:5543
18Workington4010131743:5843
19Prescot Cables409151640:5042
20Morpeth401262238:5442
21Stocksbridge408122038:6536