Sport Picks
Ilkeston vs United of Manchester
England
NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 
Match Events
36'
36'
Le Fondre A.
(Penalty)
45'
45'
Carter C.
66'
66'
Kirby-Moore H.
AI Match Summary
The NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 game between Ilkeston and United of Manchester finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ilkeston.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
15%
85%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: United of Manchester
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and United of Manchester come out ahead of Ilkeston on wins alone.
- Win probability leans United of Manchester's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 10%
United of Manchester Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ilkeston | United of Manchester |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 8 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 15 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.96 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.71 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 2.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 25, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs United of Manchester
3:2
Nov 29, 2025 NPL Premier Division
United of Manchester vs Ilkeston
2:1
Apr 12, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs United of Manchester
1:1
Aug 17, 2024 NPL Premier Division
United of Manchester vs Ilkeston
1:1
Jan 6, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs United of Manchester
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ilkeston Compare
Top Goalscorer Kirby-Moore H.
2 Goals Assists Leader Carter C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
United of Manchester Compare
Top Goalscorer Sithole G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ilkeston 10 / 100
United of Manchester 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ilkeston United of Manchester
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick United of Manchester Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
United of Manchester's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.
Ilkeston's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
Away concern: United of Manchester has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Ilkeston VS United of Manchester
0.5 Goals Scored 2.5
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Ilkeston
(Home) 29 Sept
Ilkeston
0 : 1 Warrington Rylands
26 Sept
Ilkeston
1 : 3 Anstey Nomads
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
05 Sept
Leamington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
31 Aug
Ilkeston
0 : 2 Quorn
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Ilkeston
0 : 1 Warrington Rylands
26 Sept
Ilkeston
1 : 3 Anstey Nomads
31 Aug
Ilkeston
0 : 2 Quorn
22 Aug
Ilkeston
0 : 3 Cleethorpes
18 Aug
Ilkeston
1 : 2 Warrington Town
Page 1 of 3
United of Manchester
(Away) 26 Sept
Hyde
2 : 0 United of Manchester
19 Sept
United of Manchester
4 : 1 Ossett United
12 Sept
United of Manchester
4 : 1 Warrington Town
05 Sept
Garforth
1 : 5 United of Manchester
31 Aug
United of Manchester
3 : 4 Avro
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Hyde
2 : 0 United of Manchester
05 Sept
Garforth
1 : 5 United of Manchester
29 Aug
Redcar Athletic
3 : 2 United of Manchester
25 Aug
Bamber Bridge
1 : 1 United of Manchester
18 Aug
Hyde
1 : 0 United of Manchester
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 40 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 75:41 | 79 |
| 2 | Hednesford | 40 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 62:35 | 77 |
| 3 | United of Manchester | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 65:41 | 72 |
| 4 | Warrington Rylands | 40 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 59:42 | 67 |
| 5 | Stockton | 40 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 62:50 | 63 |
| 6 | Lancaster | 40 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 56:45 | 62 |
| 7 | Gainsborough | 40 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 50:45 | 59 |
| 8 | Leek Town | 40 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 50:52 | 58 |
| 9 | Cleethorpes | 40 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 56:47 | 55 |
| 10 | Ashton United | 40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 47:54 | 53 |
| 11 | Ilkeston | 40 | 15 | 7 | 18 | 52:54 | 52 |
| 12 | Bamber Bridge | 40 | 14 | 8 | 18 | 52:52 | 50 |
| 13 | Guiseley | 40 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 46:56 | 48 |
| 14 | Warrington Town | 40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 43:63 | 48 |
| 15 | Hyde | 40 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 58:63 | 47 |
| 16 | Rushall | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 48:61 | 47 |
| 17 | Whitby | 40 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 43:55 | 43 |
| 18 | Workington | 40 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 43:58 | 43 |
| 19 | Prescot Cables | 40 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 40:50 | 42 |
| 20 | Morpeth | 40 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 38:54 | 42 |
| 21 | Stocksbridge | 40 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 38:65 | 36 |
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
