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Illescas vs Hogar Alcarreno - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2021/2022 game between Illescas and Hogar Alcarreno finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Illescas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Illescas
30%
Draws
6%
Hogar Alcarreno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Illescas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Illescas come out ahead of Hogar Alcarreno on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Illescas's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Illescas Clean Sheet 20%
Hogar Alcarreno Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Illescas Hogar Alcarreno
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 4
Draws 11 5
Losses 11 21
Goals Scored 0.74 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.81 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Illescas vs Hogar Alcarreno
2:0
Dec 18, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Hogar Alcarreno vs Illescas
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Illescas 85 / 100
Hogar Alcarreno 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Illescas Hogar Alcarreno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Illescas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Hogar Alcarreno conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Illescas stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Hogar Alcarreno registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Illescas VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
25% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Illescas

(Home)
03 Oct
Noblejas
1 : 2
Illescas
27 Sept
Illescas
2 : 0
Villarrubia
20 Sept
Quintanar del Rey
2 : 2
Illescas
13 Sept
Illescas
0 : 0
Socuellamos
05 Sept
CD Tarancon
0 : 1
Illescas
Page 1 of 7

Hogar Alcarreno

(Away)
30 Apr
Illescas
2 : 0
Hogar Alcarreno
23 Apr
Hogar Alcarreno
2 : 2
Villacanas
10 Apr
Manchego Ciudad Real
6 : 1
Hogar Alcarreno
02 Apr
Hogar Alcarreno
0 : 3
Conquense
27 Mar
UD Almansa
3 : 2
Hogar Alcarreno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guadalajara 34 23 8 3 71:19 77
2 Quintanar del Rey 34 21 7 6 63:29 70
3 Illescas 34 20 7 7 56:33 67
4 Villarrobledo 34 18 10 6 53:25 64
5 Torrijos 34 17 9 8 50:30 60
6 Conquense 34 15 11 8 49:30 56
7 Villarrubia 34 16 7 11 45:38 55
8 Azuqueca 34 16 6 12 55:40 54
9 Manchego Ciudad Real 34 15 9 10 50:26 54
10 CD Tarancon 34 16 3 15 46:45 51
11 Villacanas 34 13 7 14 47:51 46
12 Albacete B 34 11 11 12 47:40 44
13 UD Almansa 34 12 7 15 44:51 43
14 Huracan de Balazote 34 10 7 17 52:56 37
15 San Clemente 34 10 6 18 30:50 36
16 Miguelturreno 34 7 4 23 35:67 25
17 Hogar Alcarreno 34 4 5 25 29:90 17
18 La Roda 34 0 0 34 0:102 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2021/2022 (Play Offs)