Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ilves vs Jaro

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Kanga J.
8' Event
Hytonen T.
14'
Raap Y.

AI Match Summary

The Veikkausliiga game between Ilves and Jaro finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ilves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ilves
20%
Draws
40%
Jaro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ilves come out ahead of Jaro on wins alone.
  • Ilves are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ilves have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Ilves Clean Sheet 20%
Jaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilves Jaro
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 7
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.73 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.4 2.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.46 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs Ilves
2:1
Jun 17, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Jaro
5:0
Jan 31, 2026 Liiga Cup
Ilves vs Jaro
4:2
Jul 20, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Jaro vs Ilves
0:1
Apr 12, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Jaro
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ilves Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanga J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hytonen T.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.73

Jaro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilves 67 / 100
Jaro 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilves Jaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ilves Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilves's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Jaro conceded in 81% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Difficult form: Jaro registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ilves VS Jaro
1.5 Goals Scored 0.71
1 Goals Conceded 1.43
63% Over 1.5 71%
63% Over 2.5 57%
38% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Ilves

(Home)
17 Aug
Gnistan
3 : 2
Ilves
13 Aug
Ilves
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
06 Aug
Rijeka
1 : 0
Ilves
02 Aug
AC Oulu
1 : 0
Ilves
Page 1 of 6

Jaro

(Away)
16 Aug
HJK
3 : 0
Jaro
08 Aug
Jaro
1 : 3
VPS
01 Aug
Lahti
2 : 0
Jaro
24 Jul
Jaro
2 : 1
SJK
19 Jul
Jaro
0 : 0
Inter Turku
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 20 12 7 1 36:18 43
2 Inter Turku 20 10 8 2 28:16 38
3 HJK 20 10 4 6 32:23 34
4 Gnistan 20 9 5 6 32:26 32
5 VPS 20 8 6 6 28:21 30
6 AC Oulu 20 9 3 8 24:25 30
7 TPS 20 8 5 7 27:22 29
8 Lahti 20 7 5 8 23:18 26
9 Ilves 20 7 4 9 33:34 25
10 SJK 20 4 6 10 24:31 18
11 Jaro 20 3 6 11 18:41 15
12 Mariehamn 20 1 5 14 11:41 8
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)