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Imbabura vs Atletico Santo Domingo

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Imbabura averaging 0.9 xG at home and Atletico Santo Domingo producing 1.3 xG on their travels. Atletico Santo Domingo will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Imbabura to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Imbabura
20%
Draws
35%
Atletico Santo Domingo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Imbabura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Imbabura picked up more points recently compared to Atletico Santo Domingo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Imbabura Clean Sheet 19%
Atletico Santo Domingo Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Imbabura Atletico Santo Domingo
Matches Played 43 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 11 10
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.51 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

05.10.22 Serie B
Atletico Santo Domingo vs Imbabura
1:0
27.08.22 Serie B
Imbabura vs Atletico Santo Domingo
3:1
18.05.22 Serie B
Atletico Santo Domingo vs Imbabura
1:0
27.03.22 Serie B
Imbabura vs Atletico Santo Domingo
2:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Imbabura

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Atletico Santo Domingo

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Imbabura Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
6 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
4 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.57

Atletico Santo Domingo Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.91

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Atletico Santo Domingo • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Imbabura • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Atletico Santo Domingo • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Imbabura • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Imbabura 44 / 100
Atletico Santo Domingo 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Imbabura Atletico Santo Domingo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Imbabura or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Imbabura will likely press early to force mistakes.

Imbabura 59%
Atletico Santo Domingo 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Atletico Santo Domingo should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Imbabura 54%
Atletico Santo Domingo 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Imbabura 51%
Atletico Santo Domingo 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Imbabura to push more players wide.

Imbabura 56%
Atletico Santo Domingo 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Imbabura 51%
Atletico Santo Domingo 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Imbabura 62%
Atletico Santo Domingo 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Imbabura attacking → ← attacking Atletico Santo Domingo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Imbabura have scored in 94% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Atletico Santo Domingo concede most goals (41%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 22 shots per game, well above the league median.

Imbabura are unbeaten in 6 straight matches when scoring first.

Atletico Santo Domingo have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 7 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Imbabura wants a European spot, while Atletico Santo Domingo is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 34
0.92 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2