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Imolese vs Certaldo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Brandi N.
90' Event
Daffe Y.

AI Match Summary

Imolese in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Imolese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Imolese
20%
Draws
40%
Certaldo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Imolese have won more games recently than Certaldo.
  • Imolese are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Imolese Clean Sheet 68%
Certaldo Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Imolese Certaldo
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 8 6
Losses 19 18
Goals Scored 0.92 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.72 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Imolese vs Certaldo
2:0
Oct 8, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Certaldo vs Imolese
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Imolese Compare

Top Goalscorer Brandi N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Daffe Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.36

Certaldo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Imolese 95 / 100
Certaldo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Imolese Certaldo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Imolese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Certaldo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Away concern: Certaldo has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Imolese found the back of the net in 58% of recent matches (38 games).

Scoring Trends

Imolese VS -
0.25 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Imolese

(Home)
10 May
Imolese
0 : 2
Sasso Marconi
03 May
Imolese
1 : 0
Rovato Vertovese
26 Apr
Sasso Marconi
1 : 1
Imolese
19 Apr
Imolese
0 : 1
Desenzano Calvina
12 Apr
Tropical Coriano
2 : 0
Imolese
Page 1 of 8

Certaldo

(Away)
05 May
Carpi
5 : 1
Certaldo
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Ravenna
3 : 0
Certaldo
14 Apr
Certaldo
1 : 6
Corticella
07 Apr
Victor San Marino
1 : 1
Certaldo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)