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Inca Aruba vs Alianza FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

El Salvador El Salvador

Primera Division
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Rivera N.
62' Event
Paz B.
(Penalty)
86' Event
Moura G.

AI Match Summary

Alianza FC in this Primera Division matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alianza FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Inca Aruba
35%
Draws
28%
Alianza FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Inca Aruba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alianza FC lately — more wins on the board than Inca Aruba.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Inca Aruba Clean Sheet 68%
Alianza FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Inca Aruba Alianza FC
Matches Played 14 27
Wins 4 9
Draws 4 10
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 0.86 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.26 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Primera Division
Alianza FC vs Inca Aruba
1:1
Jul 26, 2026 Primera Division
Inca Aruba vs Alianza FC
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Inca Aruba Compare

Avg xG / game 0.97
Avg xA / game 0.63

Alianza FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivera N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moura G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Inca Aruba 41 / 100
Alianza FC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Inca Aruba Alianza FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Inca Aruba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Inca Aruba found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (14 games).

Alianza FC has conceded goals in 74% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Inca Aruba stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Inca Aruba VS Alianza FC
1.14 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
71% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Inca Aruba

(Home)
05 Oct
FAS
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
02 Oct
Inca Aruba
2 : 1
Municipal Limeno
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
19 Sept
Inca Aruba
2 : 1
Fuerte San Francisco
12 Sept
Aguila
3 : 1
Inca Aruba
Page 1 of 3

Alianza FC

(Away)
09 Oct
FAS
2 : 1
Alianza FC
04 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 2
Luis Angel Firpo
01 Oct
Alianza FC
2 : 1
Platense Municipal
27 Sept
Alianza FC
1 : 1
Inca Aruba
24 Sept
Alianza FC
2 : 2
Fuerte San Francisco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FAS 13 8 3 2 24:12 27
2 Metapan 13 8 2 3 20:12 26
3 Luis Angel Firpo 13 7 4 2 23:9 25
4 Inter Santa Tecla 14 5 7 2 19:12 22
5 Aguila 14 5 5 4 22:18 20
6 Platense Municipal 15 5 4 6 19:20 19
7 Alianza FC 13 4 6 3 20:19 18
8 Municipal Limeno 14 5 2 7 19:19 17
9 Inca Aruba 15 4 4 7 13:27 16
10 Atletico Balboa 14 3 4 7 15:22 13
11 Cacahuatique 14 2 5 7 14:24 11
12 Fuerte San Francisco 14 1 6 7 9:23 9
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)