Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ind. Medellin vs Dep. Pasto

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
Fri, Aug 21, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-4. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Ind. Medellin have averaged 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded recently, against Dep. Pasto's 1.25 scored and 1.61 conceded. Past meetings favor Ind. Medellin slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 10, 2026, ending 1:4. xG projections (1.63 - 0.88) back Ind. Medellin to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ind. Medellin
20%
Draws
40%
Dep. Pasto
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Ind. Medellin carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Ind. Medellin taking it.
  • Ind. Medellin have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Ind. Medellin, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Ind. Medellin Clean Sheet 20%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ind. Medellin Dep. Pasto
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 6 4
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.48 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 Copa Colombia
Dep. Pasto vs Ind. Medellin
1:4
Aug 21, 2026 Copa Colombia
Ind. Medellin vs Dep. Pasto
0:0
Jul 25, 2026 Primera A
Ind. Medellin vs Dep. Pasto
3:2
Jan 18, 2026 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Ind. Medellin
1:0
Aug 19, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Ind. Medellin
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ind. Medellin 40 / 100
Dep. Pasto 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ind. Medellin Dep. Pasto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ind. Medellin Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ind. Medellin scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Dep. Pasto has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Ind. Medellin has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ind. Medellin VS Dep. Pasto
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ind. Medellin

(Home)
27 Sept
Junior
2 : 0
Ind. Medellin
22 Sept
Ind. Medellin
2 : 1
Jaguares de Cordoba
18 Sept
Bucaramanga
2 : 2
Ind. Medellin
12 Sept
Chico
2 : 1
Ind. Medellin
10 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 4
Ind. Medellin
Page 1 of 6

Dep. Pasto

(Away)
25 Sept
Chico
3 : 0
Dep. Pasto
20 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 0
Once Caldas
15 Sept
America De Cali
0 : 1
Dep. Pasto
10 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 4
Ind. Medellin
05 Sept
Cucuta
2 : 2
Dep. Pasto
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Inter Bogotá 2
Real Cundinamarca 1
Quindio 1
Llaneros 2
America De Cali 4
Dep. Pereira 1
Barranquilla -
Millonarios -
Atl. Nacional 3
Dep. Cali 0
Dep. Pasto 1
Ind. Medellin 4
Once Caldas 1
Alianza 0
TBD -
Fortaleza C.E.I.F. -
Quarter-finals
Inter Bogotá -
Llaneros -
America De Cali -
TBD -
Atl. Nacional -
Ind. Medellin -
Once Caldas -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -