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Ind. Medellin W vs Once Caldas W

Colombia Colombia

Liga Women Estadio Polideportivo Sur
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ind. Medellin W play Once Caldas W in the Liga Women. Ind. Medellin W are favorites here. Recently, Ind. Medellin W averaged 1.32 goals scored and 1.26 conceded. Once Caldas W averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Ind. Medellin W won 4, Once Caldas W won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 28, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Ind. Medellin W and 0.69 for Once Caldas W. This points to a Ind. Medellin W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Ind. Medellin W
18%
Draws
19%
Once Caldas W
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Ind. Medellin W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence
  • Ind. Medellin W picked up more points recently compared to Once Caldas W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 0.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
Ind. Medellin W Clean Sheet 28%
Once Caldas W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ind. Medellin W Once Caldas W
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 3
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 1.32 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 Liga Women
Ind. Medellin W vs Once Caldas W
3:0
May 26, 2025 Liga Women
Once Caldas W vs Ind. Medellin W
0:2
Aug 18, 2019 Liga Women
Ind. Medellin W vs Once Caldas W
1:0
Jul 20, 2019 Liga Women
Once Caldas W vs Ind. Medellin W
0:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ind. Medellin W Compare

Top Goalscorer Cardona M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castillo V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Once Caldas W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ind. Medellin W 62 / 100
Once Caldas W 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ind. Medellin W Once Caldas W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ind. Medellin W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Ind. Medellin W & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.7%
1.82
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ind. Medellin W attacking → ← attacking Once Caldas W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ind. Medellin W scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Once Caldas W let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Ind. Medellin W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Once Caldas W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 19
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atl. Nacional W13110225:533
2Dep. Cali W13102129:632
3America de Cali W1392222:629
4Millonarios W1384128:728
5Indep. Santa Fe W1374223:925
6Inter Bogotá W1371519:1422
7Inter Palmira W1363412:1521
8Ind. Medellin W1361620:1519
9Orsomarso W1336413:1315
10Fortaleza W133469:1813
11Llaneros W133469:2113
12Junior W1325611:2111
13Bucaramanga W132299:338
14Once Caldas W131485:197
15Real Santander W130763:197
16Dep. Pasto W1303108:243