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Independencia Futebol Clube vs Acreano

Brazil Brazil

Acreano 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Independencia Futebol Clube play Acreano in the Acreano 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Independencia Futebol Clube averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Acreano averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Independencia Futebol Clube won 0, Acreano won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 19, 2024 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for Independencia Futebol Clube and 1.06 for Acreano. This points to a Independencia Futebol Clube double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Independencia Futebol Clube
18%
Draws
39%
Acreano
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Independencia Futebol Clube

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Independencia Futebol Clube picked up more points recently compared to Acreano.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Independencia Futebol Clube Clean Sheet 22%
Acreano Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independencia Futebol Clube Acreano
Matches Played 41 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 8 5
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.54 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.39 2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2024 Acreano
Acreano vs Independencia Futebol Clube
0:0
Apr 16, 2023 Acreano
Independencia Futebol Clube vs Acreano
1:3
Apr 5, 2019 Acreano
Acreano vs Independencia Futebol Clube
4:1
Mar 17, 2019 Acreano
Acreano vs Independencia Futebol Clube
3:2
May 20, 2012 Acreano
Independencia Futebol Clube vs Acreano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independencia Futebol Clube Compare

Top Goalscorer Pablo Tanque
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Acreano Compare

Top Goalscorer Bahia Leo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leandro Juca
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independencia Futebol Clube 43 / 100
Acreano 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independencia Futebol Clube Acreano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Independencia Futebol Clube or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Independencia Futebol Clube attacking → ← attacking Acreano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independencia Futebol Clube scored in 73% of their last 41 games.

Acreano let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Independencia Futebol Clube went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Acreano lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 32
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00