Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D

Independencia Futebol Clube

1 - 0

Araguaina

Our Tip

Match Events

48'

Alves de Macedo I.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Independencia Futebol Clube in this Serie D matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Independencia Futebol Clube.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Independencia Futebol Clube

30%

Draws

34%

Araguaina

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Independencia Futebol Clube

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Araguaina have won more games recently than Independencia Futebol Clube.
36% — that's where the model lands on Independencia Futebol Clube taking it.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Independencia Futebol Clube Clean Sheet 11%

Araguaina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Independencia Futebol Clube	Araguaina
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	8	11
Draws	7	8
Losses	15	9
Goals Scored	1.88	2.5
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie D

Independencia Futebol Clube vs Araguaina

Possession: 47% - 60% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D

Araguaina vs Independencia Futebol Clube

Possession: 56% - 60% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independencia Futebol Clube Compare

Top Goalscorer Alves de Macedo I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Araguaina Compare

Avg xG / game 2.27

Avg xA / game 1.39

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independencia Futebol Clube 35 / 100

Araguaina 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Independencia Futebol Clube Araguaina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Independencia Futebol Clube scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Araguaina let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Independencia Futebol Clube remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Independencia Futebol Clube VS Araguaina

1.88 Goals Scored 2.5

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13

88% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 63%

38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manauara	10	6	4	0	13:5	22
2	Nacional-AM (Manaus)	10	6	2	2	15:9	20
3	Sao Raimundo RR	10	3	4	3	10:7	13
4	Monte Roraima	10	2	4	4	11:14	10
5	Manaus FC	10	2	4	4	8:13	10
6	Gremio Atletico Sampaio	10	1	2	7	8:17	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guapore	10	6	4	0	19:9	22
2	Porto Velho	10	5	3	2	33:9	18
3	Araguaina	10	5	3	2	31:9	18
4	Independencia Futebol Clube	10	4	3	3	17:10	15
5	Galvez	10	3	1	6	14:31	10
6	SC Humaita	10	0	0	10	4:50	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gama	10	8	2	0	23:6	26
2	Luverdense	10	4	3	3	11:10	15
3	Brasiliense	10	3	5	2	11:10	14
4	Aparecidense	10	3	4	3	13:12	13
5	Primavera AC	10	3	3	4	10:13	12
6	Inhumas	10	0	1	9	3:20	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Capital	10	7	2	1	16:6	23
2	Goiatuba EC	10	5	4	1	13:7	19
3	Ceilandia	10	3	3	4	9:10	12
4	Mixto	10	2	6	2	10:9	12
5	Uniao Rondonopolis	10	2	3	5	11:18	9
6	Operario VG	10	1	2	7	7:16	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trem	10	6	2	2	19:13	20
2	Aguia De Maraba	10	5	3	2	20:11	18
3	Imperatriz	10	4	3	3	15:10	15
4	Tuna Luso	10	3	4	3	14:17	13
5	Tocantinopolis	10	3	3	4	18:18	12
6	Oratorio	10	1	1	8	12:29	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iguatu	10	5	5	0	14:7	20
2	Maracana	10	5	4	1	12:6	19
3	Parnahyba	10	4	2	4	11:13	14
4	Sampaio Correa	10	3	4	3	12:6	13
5	Moto Club	10	2	3	5	8:15	9
6	IAPE	10	0	4	6	10:20	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferroviario	10	6	3	1	15:7	21
2	Piaui	10	5	2	3	14:11	17
3	Fluminense-PI	10	3	5	2	12:9	14
4	AE Altos	10	3	2	5	9:15	11
5	Tirol	10	2	4	4	10:10	10
6	Atletico Cearense	10	1	4	5	6:14	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ABC	10	7	2	1	15:6	23
2	America RN	10	6	3	1	14:3	21
3	Maguary	10	3	4	3	8:5	13
4	Central SC	10	3	4	3	8:7	13
5	Sousa	10	3	1	6	4:11	10
6	Laguna RN	10	0	2	8	3:20	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Treze PB	10	5	2	3	18:14	17
2	Sergipe	10	4	3	3	15:13	15
3	Serra Branca	10	3	6	1	12:8	15
4	Lagarto	10	3	4	3	14:15	13
5	Retro	10	3	3	4	13:15	12
6	Decisao	10	2	2	6	10:17	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSA	10	6	3	1	25:8	21
2	Juazeirense	10	5	2	3	12:9	17
3	ASA	10	4	4	2	11:7	16
4	Jacuipense	10	3	4	3	12:14	13
5	Clube Sociedade Esportiva	10	2	3	5	10:17	9
6	Alagoinhas	10	1	2	7	5:20	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uberlandia	10	5	3	2	12:8	18
2	Betim FC	10	4	3	3	12:9	15
3	CRAC	10	3	4	3	7:7	13
4	Ivinhema	10	3	4	3	9:12	13
5	ABECAT Ouvidorense	10	3	3	4	8:9	12
6	Operario MS	10	2	3	5	9:12	9

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Democrata GV	10	5	2	3	13:9	17
2	Tombense	10	4	5	1	13:6	17
3	Vitoria ES	10	4	3	3	12:8	15
4	Rio Branco ES	10	3	4	3	14:12	13
5	Porto-BA	10	3	1	6	9:21	10
6	Real Noroeste	10	1	5	4	6:11	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa	10	6	3	1	16:6	21
2	Agua Santa	10	5	2	3	16:8	17
3	Portuguesa RJ	10	3	5	2	14:9	14
4	America RJ	10	3	3	4	11:21	12
5	Madureira	10	3	2	5	11:16	11
6	Pouso Alegre	10	2	1	7	6:14	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Piracicaba	10	4	5	1	14:9	17
2	Noroeste	10	4	3	3	12:7	15
3	Velo Clube	10	3	4	3	10:10	13
4	Sampaio Correa FE	10	3	3	4	8:10	12
5	Nova Iguacu	10	3	3	4	7:10	12
6	Marica	10	3	2	5	9:14	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santa Catarina	10	6	1	3	15:9	19
2	Cianorte	10	5	1	4	9:8	16
3	FC Cascavel	10	4	3	3	9:4	15
4	Sao Luiz	10	4	3	3	11:9	15
5	Joinville	10	4	3	3	10:8	15
6	Guarany de Bage	10	1	1	8	2:18	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Blumenau	10	6	1	3	14:8	19
2	Marcilio Dias	10	4	4	2	9:5	16
3	Sao Joseense	10	3	4	3	3:4	13
4	EC Sao Jose (PA)	10	3	4	3	6:8	13
5	Brasil de Pelotas	10	2	4	4	9:12	10
6	Azuriz	10	2	3	5	7:11	9