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Independente AP vs Santos AP - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Amapaense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Nunes J. L. A.
71' Event
Pires L.
86' Event
Phelipe L.

AI Match Summary

Independente AP in this Amapaense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Independente AP.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Independente AP
35%
Draws
42%
Santos AP
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santos AP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Independente AP have won more games recently than Santos AP.
  • Santos AP are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Amapaense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Independente AP Clean Sheet 16%
Santos AP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente AP Santos AP
Matches Played 35 33
Wins 16 15
Draws 11 9
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.63 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2026 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Santos AP
2:2
Mar 17, 2025 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Santos AP
2:0
Mar 31, 2024 Amapaense
Santos AP vs Independente AP
1:1
May 12, 2023 Amapaense
Santos AP vs Independente AP
1:2
Jul 8, 2022 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Santos AP
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independente AP Compare

Top Goalscorer Pires L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Phelipe L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Santos AP Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente AP 11 / 100
Santos AP 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente AP Santos AP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santos AP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independente AP's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Santos AP's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 33 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Independente AP went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independente AP VS Santos AP
1.88 Goals Scored 2.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Independente AP

(Home)
23 Mar
SAO Jose
2 : 2
Independente AP
20 Mar
Independente AP
2 : 2
SAO Jose
17 Mar
Independente AP
1 : 2
SAO Jose
13 Mar
Independente AP
1 : 1
Ypiranga AP
09 Mar
Macapa
1 : 3
Independente AP
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Santos AP

(Away)
28 Mar
SAO Jose
0 : 4
Santos AP
24 Mar
Oratorio
1 : 2
Santos AP
21 Mar
Santos AP
1 : 1
Oratorio
15 Mar
Santos AP
5 : 0
Macapa
08 Mar
Santos AP
1 : 1
Trem
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trem 7 5 1 1 16:5 16
2 Oratorio 7 5 1 1 11:5 16
3 Independente AP 7 4 2 1 11:5 14
4 Santos AP 7 3 0 4 9:9 9
5 Cristal AP 7 3 2 2 13:7 8
6 Ypiranga AP 7 2 2 3 8:7 8
7 Portuguesa AP 7 1 2 4 5:9 5
8 Santana EC 7 0 0 7 4:30 0
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