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Independente RJ vs Ceres

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C
Mon, Jul 6, 2026
VS
05:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Carioca C. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Ceres have shipped 1.38 goals a game lately, while Independente RJ have conceded 1 and scored 0.5. Head-to-head, Independente RJ have won 0 to Ceres's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Jul 12, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.94 - 1.13) back Ceres to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Independente RJ
28%
Draws
22%
Ceres
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Independente RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Independente RJ have managed 0.5 goals a game lately — Ceres are scoring more at 1.25.
  • Win probability leans Independente RJ's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Independente RJ Clean Sheet 20%
Ceres Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente RJ Ceres
Matches Played 9 8
Wins 3 3
Draws 2 0
Losses 4 5
Goals Scored 0.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Carioca C
Ceres vs Independente RJ
0:0
Jul 6, 2026 Carioca C
Independente RJ vs Ceres
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente RJ 49 / 100
Ceres 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente RJ Ceres

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceres let in goals in 83% of their last 6 matches.

Away concern: Ceres has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Solid form: Independente RJ remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Independente RJ scored in 43% of their last 7 outings.

Scoring Trends

Independente RJ VS Ceres
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Independente RJ

(Home)
12 Jul
Ceres
:
Independente RJ
06 Jul
Independente RJ
:
Ceres
28 Jun
Cardoso Moreira
2 : 0
Independente RJ
07 Jun
Independente RJ
1 : 0
Grande Rio Brescia Clube
31 May
Itaborai Profute
1 : 1
Independente RJ
Page 1 of 2

Ceres

(Away)
12 Jul
Ceres
:
Independente RJ
06 Jul
Independente RJ
:
Ceres
08 Jun
Ceres
2 : 4
Tigres Brasil
31 May
Cardoso Moreira
2 : 0
Ceres
25 May
Ceres
1 : 2
Campos AA
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Mageense-
EC Vera Cruz-
Itaborai Profute-
Barcelona EC-
Uniao Central5
Caac Brazil3
Ceres-
Independente RJ-