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Stadium Background

Independente SE vs America de Pedrinhas

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Independente SE play America de Pedrinhas in the Sergipano 2 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Independente SE averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.95 conceded. America de Pedrinhas averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, Independente SE won 1, America de Pedrinhas won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 25, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Independente SE and 1.94 for America de Pedrinhas. This points to a America de Pedrinhas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Independente SE
22%
Draws
46%
America de Pedrinhas
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: America de Pedrinhas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Independente SE picked up more points recently compared to America de Pedrinhas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Independente SE Clean Sheet 10%
America de Pedrinhas Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente SE America de Pedrinhas
Matches Played 22 30
Wins 5 13
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.09 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.95 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2025 Sergipano 2
Independente SE vs America de Pedrinhas
1:1
Oct 13, 2024 Sergipano 2
America de Pedrinhas vs Independente SE
3:0
Sep 28, 2024 Sergipano 2
America de Pedrinhas vs Independente SE
2:3
Sep 4, 2024 Sergipano 2
Independente SE vs America de Pedrinhas
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente SE 31 / 100
America de Pedrinhas 45 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente SE America de Pedrinhas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: America de Pedrinhas or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Independente SE attacking → ← attacking America de Pedrinhas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independente SE scored in 59% of their last 22 games.

America de Pedrinhas let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Independente SE went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

America de Pedrinhas lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 43
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Flamengo SE870113:121
2Atletico Central860217:718
3Aracaju FC850314:1015
4CS Maruinense81165:134
5Socorro80171:191
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Desportiva Aracaju871016:422
2Barra SE861119:419
3Santa Cruz SE830512:159
4Cotinguiba81167:144
5Socorrense81161:184
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1America de Pedrinhas860220:918
2Independente SE834112:1113
3Riachao833211:712
4Amadense831415:1810
5AD Boquinhense80265:182
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Frei Paulistano861121:319
2Boca Junior851214:816
3Estanciano EC831411:1210
4Sete de Junho82156:157
5Botafogo ASF81253:175
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guarany SE861123:619
2Caninde851214:1016
3Forca Jovem Aquidaba840416:1012
4Propria823311:149
5Coritiba SE80176:301