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Independente SP vs Paulinense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Sun, Jul 19, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

No Data

No live events recorded yet.

AI Match Summary

Independente SP host Paulinense in the Paulista B. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Paulinense have shipped 1.5 goals a game lately, while Independente SP have conceded 0.63 and scored 3.88. Head-to-head, Independente SP have won 1 to Paulinense's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Jul 12, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (2.69 xG vs 0.81) point toward Independente SP. Over markets look the better angle than the result itself.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Independente SP
6%
Draws
4%
Paulinense
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Independente SP has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Paulinense.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Independente SP.
  • Cup tournament structure in Paulista B increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 20%
Paulinense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente SP Paulinense
Matches Played 29 12
Wins 16 7
Draws 4 0
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 3.88 1
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 3.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Paulista B
Paulinense vs Independente SP
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente SP 85 / 100
Paulinense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente SP Paulinense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independente SP scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Paulinense let in goals in 67% of their last 12 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Independente SP went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Paulinense lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independente SP VS Paulinense
3.88 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Itaqua6
Paulinia FU1
Maua FC3
Uniao Mogi5
Independente SP4
Tupa0
Paulinense3
Sao Carlos0
Jose Bonifacio EC4
Manthiqueira1
America SP3
Santacruzense0
Flamengo SP2
Audax-SP1
Matonense1
Assisense0
Quarter-finals
Itaqua4
Uniao Mogi1
Independente SP0
Paulinense0
Jose Bonifacio EC0
America SP0
Flamengo SP1
Matonense0
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-