Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Independente SP vs Tupa

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Independente SP play Tupa in the Paulista B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Independente SP averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Tupa averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Independente SP won 3, Tupa won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Independente SP and 1.19 for Tupa. This points to a Independente SP double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Independente SP
6%
Draws
4%
Tupa
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Independente SP has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Tupa.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Independente SP.
  • Cup tournament structure in Paulista B increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 20%
Tupa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente SP Tupa
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 16 13
Draws 3 4
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 2.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Tupa
2:0
Jun 28, 2026 Paulista B
Tupa vs Independente SP
0:2
Feb 6, 2014 Paulista A3
Independente SP vs Tupa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independente SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Lino
1 Goals
Assists Leader Domingos Calegari B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Tupa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente SP 85 / 100
Tupa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente SP Tupa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independente SP scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Tupa let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Independente SP went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tupa lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independente SP VS Tupa
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Itaqua6
Paulinia FU1
Maua FC3
Uniao Mogi5
Independente SP4
Tupa0
Paulinense3
Sao Carlos0
Jose Bonifacio EC4
Manthiqueira1
America SP3
Santacruzense0
Flamengo SP2
Audax-SP1
Matonense1
Assisense0
Quarter-finals
Itaqua4
Uniao Mogi1
Independente SP-
Paulinense-
Jose Bonifacio EC0
America SP0
Flamengo SP1
Matonense0
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-