Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Independente SP vs Tupa

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Independente SP Logo

Independente SP

2 - 0
FT
Tupa Logo

Tupa

Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Lucas Lino
54'
Wesley Santos
63' Event
Domingos Calegari B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Independente SP
15%
Draws
21%
Tupa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Independente SP lately — more wins on the board than Tupa.
  • Independente SP are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Independente SP have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente SP, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Independente SP here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 20%
Tupa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente SP Tupa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 20 13
Draws 2 4
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 2.4 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Tupa
2:0
Jun 28, 2026 Paulista B
Tupa vs Independente SP
0:2
Feb 6, 2014 Paulista A3
Independente SP vs Tupa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independente SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Lino
1 Goals
Assists Leader Domingos Calegari B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Tupa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente SP 85 / 100
Tupa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente SP Tupa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente SP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independente SP found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Tupa let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Recent resilience: Independente SP stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independente SP VS Tupa
3.88 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Independente SP

(Home)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
Page 1 of 6

Tupa

(Away)
05 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 0
Tupa
28 Jun
Tupa
0 : 2
Independente SP
20 Jun
Tupa
1 : 2
Santa Fe SP
14 Jun
Riopretano
0 : 1
Tupa
06 Jun
America SP
3 : 1
Tupa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3