Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Libertad Asuncion

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Independiente del Valle play Libertad Asuncion in the Copa Libertadores. Independiente del Valle are favorites here. Recently, Independiente del Valle averaged 2.13 goals scored and 1 conceded. Libertad Asuncion averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Independiente del Valle won 2, Libertad Asuncion won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 20, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.78 for Independiente del Valle and 1.21 for Libertad Asuncion. This points to a Independiente del Valle double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Independiente del Valle

Draws

Libertad Asuncion

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Independiente del Valle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Independiente del Valle has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Libertad Asuncion.
Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Independiente del Valle.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Copa Libertadores provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 40.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 68%

Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Independiente del Valle	Libertad Asuncion
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	22	10
Draws	3	4
Losses	5	16
Goals Scored	2.13	1.43
Goals Conceded	1	1.43
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion

Possession: 46% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

4:1

Apr 28, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle

Possession: 60% - 56% Cards: 3 - 0

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independiente del Valle Compare

Top Goalscorer Sornoza J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Gonzalez C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Melgarejo L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.3

Avg xA / game 0.79

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independiente del Valle 95 / 100

Libertad Asuncion 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Independiente del Valle Libertad Asuncion

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 3:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independiente del Valle scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Libertad Asuncion let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Independiente del Valle went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Libertad Asuncion lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independiente del Valle VS Libertad Asuncion

2.13 Goals Scored 1.43

1 Goals Conceded 1.43

75% Over 1.5 57%

63% Over 2.5 57%

38% Over 3.5 43%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	6	5	1	0	14:2	16
2	Estudiantes L.P.	6	2	3	1	6:5	9
3	Ind. Medellin	6	2	1	3	6:11	7
4	Cusco	6	0	1	5	4:12	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coquimbo	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
2	Deportes Tolima	6	2	2	2	7:6	8
3	Club Nacional	6	2	2	2	7:9	8
4	Universitario de Deportes	6	1	3	2	5:6	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ind. Rivadavia	6	5	1	0	15:6	16
2	Fluminense	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Bolivar	6	1	2	3	6:8	5
4	Deportivo La Guaira	6	0	3	3	6:13	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	U. Catolica	6	4	1	1	8:4	13
2	Cruzeiro	6	3	2	1	8:3	11
3	Boca Juniors	6	2	1	3	6:5	7
4	Barcelona SC	6	1	0	5	2:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Corinthians	6	3	2	1	8:4	11
2	Platense	6	3	1	2	8:7	10
3	Santa Fe	6	2	2	2	6:7	8
4	Penarol	6	0	3	3	4:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cerro Porteno	6	4	1	1	6:2	13
2	Palmeiras	6	3	2	1	10:5	11
3	Sporting Cristal	6	2	0	4	6:9	6
4	Junior	6	1	1	4	5:11	4

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	LDU Quito	6	4	2	8:5	12
2	Mirassol	6	4	2	7:4	12
3	Lanus	6	3	3	3:7	9
4	Always Ready	6	1	5	7:9	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	6	4	1	1	11:6	13
2	Rosario Central	6	4	1	1	9:1	13
3	Universidad Central	6	3	0	3	7:11	9
4	Libertad Asuncion	6	0	0	6	4:13	0