Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito

Independiente del Valle

4 - 1

Libertad Asuncion

Our Tip

Match Events

38'

Sornoza J.

43'

Gonzalez C.

Assist: Sornoza J.

45'

Melgarejo L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. This leg finished 4-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Independiente del Valle

20%

Draws

40%

Libertad Asuncion

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence

Form's been kind to Independiente del Valle lately — more wins on the board than Libertad Asuncion.
Win probability leans Independiente del Valle's way, sitting at 42%.
Independiente del Valle have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Independiente del Valle, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%

Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 16%

Libertad Asuncion Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Independiente del Valle	Libertad Asuncion
Matches Played	33	29
Wins	26	13
Draws	3	4
Losses	4	12
Goals Scored	2.36	1.41
Goals Conceded	0.97	1.34
Expected Goals (xG)	1.44	1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion

4:1

Apr 28, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independiente del Valle Compare

Top Goalscorer Sornoza J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Gonzalez C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.11

Avg xA / game 0.72

Libertad Asuncion Compare

Top Goalscorer Melgarejo L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.31

Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independiente del Valle 41 / 100

Libertad Asuncion 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Independiente del Valle Libertad Asuncion

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independiente del Valle found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (33 games).

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Libertad Asuncion has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Independiente del Valle stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independiente del Valle VS Libertad Asuncion

1.63 Goals Scored 1.5

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25

88% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 50%

50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Independiente del Valle

(Home)

25 Sept

Gualaceo

0 : 2

Independiente del Valle

18 Sept

Flamengo RJ

1 : 1

Independiente del Valle

13 Sept

Libertad

2 : 3

Independiente del Valle

11 Sept

Independiente del Valle

0 : 2

Flamengo RJ

05 Sept

Independiente del Valle

3 : 1

Macara

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Libertad Asuncion

(Away)

05 Oct

Recoleta

1 : 2

Libertad Asuncion

28 Sept

Libertad Asuncion

0 : 1

Olimpia Asuncion

23 Sept

Fernando de la Mora

1 : 2

Libertad Asuncion

19 Sept

Libertad Asuncion

1 : 1

Sportivo Ameliano

11 Sept

2 de Mayo

0 : 2

Libertad Asuncion

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