Sport Picks
Independiente del Valle vs U. Catolica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ecuador
Liga Pro Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Schunke R. In: Carabajal M.
Out: Schunke R.
51'
51'
Briones R.
Assist: Angulo J.
56'
56'
Angulo J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Independiente del Valle have won more games recently than U. Catolica.
- Independiente del Valle are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 14%
U. Catolica Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Independiente del Valle | U. Catolica |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 25 | 14 |
| Draws | 3 | 6 |
| Losses | 3 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2.42 | 1.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.94 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs U. Catolica
2:2
May 13, 2026 Super Cup
U. Catolica vs Independiente del Valle
0:3
May 1, 2026 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Independiente del Valle
2:3
Dec 14, 2025 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Independiente del Valle
0:1
Nov 8, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs U. Catolica
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Independiente del Valle Compare
Top Goalscorer Briones R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Angulo J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
U. Catolica Compare
Top Goalscorer Alonso M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Londono A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Independiente del Valle 35 / 100
U. Catolica 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Independiente del Valle U. Catolica
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Independiente del Valle's goal record stands at 94% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Defensive concern: U. Catolica conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Independiente del Valle has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Independiente del Valle VS U. Catolica
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Independiente del Valle
(Home) 25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
Page 1 of 7
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
29 Aug
Independiente del Valle
2 : 2 U. Catolica
26 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Deportes Tolima
15 Aug
Independiente del Valle
3 : 2 Delfin
Page 1 of 3
U. Catolica
(Away) 20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1 U. Catolica
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1 Orense
10 Sept
Astillero
0 : 1 U. Catolica
06 Sept
Delfin
0 : 1 U. Catolica
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1 Aucas
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1 U. Catolica
10 Sept
Astillero
0 : 1 U. Catolica
06 Sept
Delfin
0 : 1 U. Catolica
29 Aug
Independiente del Valle
2 : 2 U. Catolica
18 Aug
Macara
1 : 1 U. Catolica
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Dep. Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico U. | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | 21 |
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)
