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Indonesia vs Australia

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World Championship 2026 Istora Gelora Bung Karno
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Indonesia play Australia in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Indonesia averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Australia averaged 1.7 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. In past meetings, Indonesia won 0, Australia won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 20, 2025 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.28 for Indonesia and 1.04 for Australia. This points to a Australia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Indonesia
26%
Draws
44%
Australia
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Australia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Indonesia picked up more points recently compared to Australia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.28 vs 1.04 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 22%
Australia Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Indonesia Australia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.24 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.43 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.71 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2025 World Championship
Australia vs Indonesia
5:1
Sep 10, 2024 World Championship
Indonesia vs Australia
0:0
Jan 28, 2024 Asian Cup
Australia vs Indonesia
4:0
Mar 3, 2010 Asian Cup
Australia vs Indonesia
1:0
Jan 28, 2009 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs Australia
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indonesia 31 / 100
Australia 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Indonesia Australia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Australia or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Indonesia attacking → ← attacking Australia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Indonesia scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Australia let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Indonesia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Australia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 54
1.43 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.71 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

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6Kuwait100557:205
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Japan1072130:323
2Australia1054116:719
3Saudi Arabia103437:813
4Indonesia103349:2012
5China103077:209
6Bahrain101365:166