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World

Friendly International 2025 Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium

Lebanon

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Indonesia play Lebanon in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Indonesia averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Lebanon averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. In past meetings, Indonesia won 0, Lebanon won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 8, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Indonesia and 1.31 for Lebanon. This points to a Lebanon double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Indonesia

23%

Draws

40%

Lebanon

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Lebanon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Indonesia picked up more points recently compared to Lebanon.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 61%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25%

Indonesia Clean Sheet 18%

Lebanon Clean Sheet 16%

First Half Goal 55%

Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Indonesia	Lebanon
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	13	13
Draws	6	7
Losses	12	9
Goals Scored	1.39	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.29	0.86
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2025 Friendly International

Indonesia vs Lebanon

Possession: 44% - 48% Cards: 0 - 3

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indonesia 37 / 100

Lebanon 39 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Indonesia Lebanon

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Lebanon or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Indonesia attacking → ← attacking Lebanon

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Indonesia scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Lebanon let in goals in 48% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 0.00 goals.

Indonesia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Lebanon lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 46

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.25