Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ingolstadt vs Verl

Germany Germany

3. Liga 2025/2026 Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Worner M.
12' Event
Taz B.
Assist: Waidner D.
46'
Sub
Rosenlocher L. In: Deichmann Y.
Out: Rosenlocher L.

AI Match Summary

The 3. Liga 2025/2026 game between Ingolstadt and Verl finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Verl.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Ingolstadt
20%
Draws
30%
Verl
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ingolstadt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Verl carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Ingolstadt taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Ingolstadt Clean Sheet 10%
Verl Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ingolstadt Verl
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 13 15
Draws 6 2
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.71 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 3. Liga
Ingolstadt vs Verl
1:2
Oct 1, 2025 3. Liga
Verl vs Ingolstadt
2:2
Mar 15, 2025 3. Liga
Verl vs Ingolstadt
1:4
Oct 19, 2024 3. Liga
Ingolstadt vs Verl
1:1
Mar 17, 2024 3. Liga
Ingolstadt vs Verl
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ingolstadt Compare

Top Goalscorer Maljojoki J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Verl Compare

Top Goalscorer Worner M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Taz B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ingolstadt 74 / 100
Verl 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ingolstadt Verl

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ingolstadt Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ingolstadt scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Verl conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Ingolstadt stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ingolstadt VS Verl
2 Goals Scored 2.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ingolstadt

(Home)
15 Aug
Preussen Munster
1 : 1
Ingolstadt
08 Aug
Ingolstadt
2 : 2
Wurzburger Kickers
01 Aug
Heidenheim
4 : 1
Ingolstadt
25 Jul
RB Leipzig
1 : 0
Ingolstadt
18 Jul
Ingolstadt
1 : 0
Palermo
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Verl

(Away)
15 Aug
Verl
2 : 4
Duisburg
09 Aug
Alemannia Aachen
4 : 1
Verl
01 Aug
RB Leipzig
4 : 0
Verl
26 Jul
Verl
6 : 1
Bremer
18 Jul
Wolfsburg
3 : 0
Verl
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 VfL Osnabruck 38 24 8 6 66:34 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72:51 72
3 RW Essen 38 20 10 8 78:66 70
4 Duisburg 38 19 11 8 66:49 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 74:49 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 82:48 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 76:57 64
8 Munich 1860 38 15 11 12 54:53 56
9 Wehen 38 15 8 15 54:52 53
10 Mannheim 38 15 7 16 59:72 52
11 FC Viktoria Koln 38 15 6 17 51:53 51
12 Ingolstadt 38 13 10 15 65:56 49
13 Regensburg 38 14 7 17 54:58 49
14 VfB Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 57:69 46
15 Saarbrucken 38 10 14 14 51:57 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 65:71 43
17 TSV Havelse 38 9 8 21 57:89 35
18 Aue 38 7 13 18 51:70 34
19 Ulm 38 9 6 23 49:78 33
20 1. FC Schweinfurt 38 5 6 27 38:87 21
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)