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Inverness U20 vs Arbroath

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup 2016/2017
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Inverness U20 play Arbroath in the Challenge Cup 2016/2017. Arbroath are favorites here. Recently, Inverness U20 averaged 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Arbroath averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Inverness U20 won 0, Arbroath won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 2, 2016 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Inverness U20 and 1.56 for Arbroath. This points to a Arbroath double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Inverness U20
25%
Draws
60%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Arbroath

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Inverness U20 picked up more points recently compared to Arbroath.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Inverness U20 Clean Sheet 15%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Inverness U20 Arbroath
Matches Played 2 30
Wins 0 12
Draws 0 9
Losses 2 9
Goals Scored 0.5 1.57
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2016 Challenge Cup
Inverness U20 vs Arbroath
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Inverness U20 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Arbroath Compare

Top Goalscorer Kader O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hamilton C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Inverness U20 17 / 100
Arbroath 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Inverness U20 Arbroath

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arbroath Win (2)
Secondary Pick Arbroath & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +114.3%
14.29
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Inverness U20 attacking → ← attacking Arbroath

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Inverness U20 scored in 50% of their last 2 games.

Arbroath let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Inverness U20 went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Arbroath lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

0 Points in last 5 45
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00