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Island Bay vs Miramar

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2014
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-2, with Island Bay advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Island Bay
15%
Draws
55%
Miramar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Miramar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Miramar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Miramar a 55% chance of winning this.
  • Miramar arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Miramar, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 94%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 94%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 83.4%
Island Bay Clean Sheet 10%
Miramar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Island Bay Miramar
Matches Played 3 31
Wins 1 12
Draws 0 2
Losses 2 17
Goals Scored 1.67 2.06
Goals Conceded 3 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Chatham Cup
Island Bay vs Miramar
1:3
Jun 28, 2014 Chatham Cup
Island Bay vs Miramar
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Island Bay 10 / 100
Miramar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Island Bay Miramar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Miramar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Island Bay scored in 100% of their last 3 games.

Defensive concern: Miramar conceded in 87% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Island Bay remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Island Bay VS Miramar
1 Goals Scored 1.25
3 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
100% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Island Bay

(Home)
04 Jul
Island Bay
1 : 3
Miramar
27 Jul
Island Bay
1 : 4
Napier City
28 Jun
Island Bay
3 : 2
Miramar

Miramar

(Away)
26 Jul
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Miramar
04 Jul
Island Bay
1 : 3
Miramar
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1
Miramar
29 Nov
Miramar
2 : 1
Western Suburbs
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4
Miramar
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Central United 3
Glenfield 1
Bay Olympic 2
Hamilton 3
Island Bay 3
Miramar 2
Tawa 2
Napier City 4
Ngongotaha AFC 1
Melville 2
Tauranga 0
Onehunga 2
Dunedin 1
Otago University 0
Coastal Spirit 0
Cashmere Technical 1
Quarter-finals
Central United 2
Hamilton 0
Island Bay 1
Napier City 4
Melville 1
Onehunga 2
Dunedin 0
Cashmere Technical 3
Semi-finals
Central United 2
Napier City 0
Onehunga 0
Cashmere Technical 4
Final
Central United 1
Cashmere Technical 2