Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Istaravshan vs Istiqlol Dushanbe

Tajikistan Tajikistan

Vysshaya Liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Istiqlol Dushanbe in this Vysshaya Liga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Istiqlol Dushanbe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Istaravshan
15%
Draws
76%
Istiqlol Dushanbe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Istiqlol Dushanbe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Istiqlol Dushanbe have won more games recently than Istaravshan.
  • Model gives Istiqlol Dushanbe a 76% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Vysshaya Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Istiqlol Dushanbe have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Istaravshan Clean Sheet 10%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istaravshan Istiqlol Dushanbe
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 2 21
Draws 10 5
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 0.86 2.26
Goals Conceded 2.03 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istaravshan vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:2
Dec 12, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istaravshan vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:4
Aug 14, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Istaravshan
6:0
Aug 14, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Istaravshan vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
0:2
Apr 7, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Istaravshan
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istaravshan 10 / 100
Istiqlol Dushanbe 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istaravshan Istiqlol Dushanbe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istiqlol Dushanbe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Istaravshan scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Istiqlol Dushanbe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 31 matches.

Istaravshan went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Istaravshan VS Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 Goals Scored 1.5
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Istaravshan

(Home)
16 Sept
Eskhata
3 : 1
Istaravshan
11 Sept
Istaravshan
1 : 4
Barkchi Hisor
29 Aug
Vakhsh
1 : 1
Istaravshan
16 Aug
Istaravshan
0 : 2
Khujand
02 Aug
Khosilot Parkhar
5 : 2
Istaravshan
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Istiqlol Dushanbe

(Away)
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0
Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4
Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1
Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Istiqlol Dushanbe 17 11 4 2 23:6 37
2 Regar-TadAZ 17 11 4 2 23:9 37
3 Khosilot Parkhar 17 10 4 3 34:17 34
4 Barkchi Hisor 16 7 3 6 24:23 24
5 CSKA Pomir Dushanbe 16 7 3 6 18:20 24
6 Khujand 16 6 6 4 15:11 24
7 Ravshan Kulob 17 6 4 7 23:19 22
8 Vakhsh 17 4 8 5 24:24 20
9 Eskhata 17 5 4 8 22:32 19
10 Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov 17 4 3 10 15:32 15
11 Sardor Tursunzoda 16 2 5 9 23:31 11
12 Istaravshan 17 0 6 11 15:35 6
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)