Sport Picks

Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Al Nassr - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia

AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 Hisor Central Stadium, Hisor

Istiqlol Dushanbe

0 - 4

Al Nassr

Our Tip

Match Events

12'

Joao Felix

(Penalty)

18'

Okoro J.

40'

Simakan M.

Assist: Al Hassan A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Al Nassr in this AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Nassr.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Istiqlol Dushanbe

15%

Draws

37%

Al Nassr

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Istiqlol Dushanbe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence

Istiqlol Dushanbe have won more games recently than Al Nassr.
Model gives Istiqlol Dushanbe a 48% chance of winning this.
European nights carry their own weight — this AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Al Nassr here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%

Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 18%

Al Nassr Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Istiqlol Dushanbe	Al Nassr
Matches Played	31	27
Wins	21	18
Draws	5	2
Losses	5	7
Goals Scored	2.26	2.37
Goals Conceded	0.77	1.15
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 26, 2025 AFC Champions League 2

Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Al Nassr

0:4

Sep 17, 2025 AFC Champions League 2

Al Nassr vs Istiqlol Dushanbe

5:0

Dec 5, 2023 AFC Champions League

Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Al Nassr

1:1

Oct 2, 2023 AFC Champions League

Al Nassr vs Istiqlol Dushanbe

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istiqlol Dushanbe Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Al Nassr Compare

Top Goalscorer Simakan M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Mane S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.23

Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istiqlol Dushanbe 85 / 100

Al Nassr 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Istiqlol Dushanbe Al Nassr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istiqlol Dushanbe Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istiqlol Dushanbe found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 3.75 goals when they meet.

Al Nassr let in goals in 63% of their last 27 matches.

Solid form: Istiqlol Dushanbe remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Istiqlol Dushanbe VS Al Nassr

1 Goals Scored 2.38

0.33 Goals Conceded 1.5

17% Over 1.5 100%

17% Over 2.5 88%

17% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Istiqlol Dushanbe

(Home)

15 Sept

Khujand

1 : 0

Istiqlol Dushanbe

05 Sept

Istiqlol Dushanbe

1 : 0

Khosilot Parkhar

30 Aug

Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov

0 : 4

Istiqlol Dushanbe

15 Aug

Ravshan Kulob

0 : 1

Istiqlol Dushanbe

02 Aug

Regar-TadAZ

1 : 0

Istiqlol Dushanbe

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Al Nassr

(Away)

15 Sept

Al Ain

4 : 0

Al Nassr

12 Sept

Al Khaleej

1 : 1

Al Nassr

09 Sept

Al Nassr

2 : 1

Abha

05 Sept

Al Ittihad

2 : 1

Al Nassr

28 Aug

Al Nassr

2 : 1

Al Taawon

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