Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Al Zawraa

Asia Asia

AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Tomiwa Gbadamosi I.
14'
Rakhimov M.
20' Event
Juraboev A.

AI Match Summary

Istiqlol Dushanbe in this AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Istiqlol Dushanbe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Istiqlol Dushanbe
22%
Draws
18%
Al Zawraa
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Istiqlol Dushanbe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Istiqlol Dushanbe have won more games recently than Al Zawraa.
  • Model gives Istiqlol Dushanbe a 60% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 68%
Al Zawraa Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istiqlol Dushanbe Al Zawraa
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 20 16
Draws 7 10
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.25 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 5, 2025 AFC Champions League 2
Al Zawraa vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
2:1
Oct 22, 2025 AFC Champions League 2
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Al Zawraa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istiqlol Dushanbe Compare

Top Goalscorer Juraboev A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Komolafe P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Al Zawraa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomiwa Gbadamosi I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istiqlol Dushanbe 68 / 100
Al Zawraa 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istiqlol Dushanbe Al Zawraa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istiqlol Dushanbe's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Al Zawraa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 33 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Istiqlol Dushanbe has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Istiqlol Dushanbe VS Al Zawraa
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

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3Al-Muharraq62138:87
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3Ahal40134:101
4Mohun Bagan00000:00
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Nassr660022:218
2Al Zawraa63038:119
3Istiqlol Dushanbe63037:139
4FC Goa60063:140
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4Eastern AA60062:300
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3Pathum United62045:86
4Kaya FC60064:150