Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Khujand

Tajikistan Tajikistan

Vysshaya Liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Istiqlol Dushanbe in this Vysshaya Liga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Istiqlol Dushanbe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Istiqlol Dushanbe
20%
Draws
44%
Khujand
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Khujand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Istiqlol Dushanbe lately — more wins on the board than Khujand.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 20%
Khujand Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istiqlol Dushanbe Khujand
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 25 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 2.29 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.82 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Khujand vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:0
Apr 24, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Khujand
2:1
Jun 18, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Khujand vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:0
Mar 7, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Khujand
1:0
Sep 7, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Khujand
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istiqlol Dushanbe 31 / 100
Khujand 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istiqlol Dushanbe Khujand

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istiqlol Dushanbe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istiqlol Dushanbe scored in 79% of their last 38 games.

Solid form: Istiqlol Dushanbe remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Khujand's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Istiqlol Dushanbe VS Khujand
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Istiqlol Dushanbe

(Home)
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0
Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4
Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1
Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
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Khujand

(Away)
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
08 Sept
Regar-TadAZ
0 : 0
Khujand
16 Aug
Istaravshan
0 : 2
Khujand
01 Aug
Khujand
1 : 1
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
27 Jun
Eskhata
0 : 1
Khujand
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Istiqlol Dushanbe 17 11 4 2 23:6 37
2 Regar-TadAZ 17 11 4 2 23:9 37
3 Khosilot Parkhar 17 10 4 3 34:17 34
4 Barkchi Hisor 16 7 3 6 24:23 24
5 CSKA Pomir Dushanbe 16 7 3 6 18:20 24
6 Khujand 16 6 6 4 15:11 24
7 Ravshan Kulob 17 6 4 7 23:19 22
8 Vakhsh 17 4 8 5 24:24 20
9 Eskhata 17 5 4 8 22:32 19
10 Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov 17 4 3 10 15:32 15
11 Sardor Tursunzoda 16 2 5 9 23:31 11
12 Istaravshan 17 0 6 11 15:35 6
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)