Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ

Tajikistan Tajikistan

Vysshaya Liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Vysshaya Liga game between Istiqlol Dushanbe and Regar-TadAZ finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Istiqlol Dushanbe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Istiqlol Dushanbe
15%
Draws
45%
Regar-TadAZ
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Regar-TadAZ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Istiqlol Dushanbe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Vysshaya Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 20%
Regar-TadAZ Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istiqlol Dushanbe Regar-TadAZ
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 21 18
Draws 5 8
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 2.25 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.84 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Regar-TadAZ vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:0
May 23, 2026 Super Cup
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ
1:2
Mar 14, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ
1:0
Jun 22, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Regar-TadAZ vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:2
May 25, 2025 Super Cup
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istiqlol Dushanbe 32 / 100
Regar-TadAZ 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istiqlol Dushanbe Regar-TadAZ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istiqlol Dushanbe found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

Regar-TadAZ let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Istiqlol Dushanbe went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Istiqlol Dushanbe VS Regar-TadAZ
1.25 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Istiqlol Dushanbe

(Home)
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0
Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4
Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1
Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
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Regar-TadAZ

(Away)
17 Sept
Vakhsh
0 : 1
Regar-TadAZ
08 Sept
Regar-TadAZ
0 : 0
Khujand
30 Aug
Khosilot Parkhar
1 : 0
Regar-TadAZ
18 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
3 : 0
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
12 Aug
Maziya
0 : 3
Regar-TadAZ
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Istiqlol Dushanbe 17 11 4 2 23:6 37
2 Regar-TadAZ 17 11 4 2 23:9 37
3 Khosilot Parkhar 17 10 4 3 34:17 34
4 Barkchi Hisor 16 7 3 6 24:23 24
5 CSKA Pomir Dushanbe 16 7 3 6 18:20 24
6 Khujand 16 6 6 4 15:11 24
7 Ravshan Kulob 17 6 4 7 23:19 22
8 Vakhsh 17 4 8 5 24:24 20
9 Eskhata 17 5 4 8 22:32 19
10 Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov 17 4 3 10 15:32 15
11 Sardor Tursunzoda 16 2 5 9 23:31 11
12 Istaravshan 17 0 6 11 15:35 6
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)