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Stadium Background

Istres vs St. Maur Lusitanos

France France

National 2 - Group C Stade Parsemain
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Istres play St. Maur Lusitanos in the National 2 - Group C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Istres averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. St. Maur Lusitanos averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. In past meetings, Istres won 1, St. Maur Lusitanos won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 7, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Istres and 1.38 for St. Maur Lusitanos. This points to a St. Maur Lusitanos double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Istres
28%
Draws
38%
St. Maur Lusitanos
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: St. Maur Lusitanos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Istres picked up more points recently compared to St. Maur Lusitanos.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Istres Clean Sheet 17%
St. Maur Lusitanos Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istres St. Maur Lusitanos
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 9 9
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.43 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 National 2 - Group C
Istres vs St. Maur Lusitanos
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 National 2 - Group C
St. Maur Lusitanos vs Istres
1:0
Feb 26, 1999 Ligue 3
Istres vs St. Maur Lusitanos
2:1
Sep 18, 1998 Ligue 3
St. Maur Lusitanos vs Istres
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istres Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

St. Maur Lusitanos Compare

Top Goalscorer Kissy A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istres 34 / 100
St. Maur Lusitanos 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istres St. Maur Lusitanos

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: St. Maur Lusitanos or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Istres attacking → ← attacking St. Maur Lusitanos

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istres scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

St. Maur Lusitanos let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Istres went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

St. Maur Lusitanos lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 54
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cannes30179453:3060
2Nimes30185746:2559
3St. Maur Lusitanos301510540:2455
4Rumilly Vallieres30138949:3647
5Hyeres301112736:2745
6Andrezieux30129948:3345
7Istres301110942:3243
8Creteil301271136:3443
9GOAL FC301181138:4640
10RC Grasse30991241:4236
11Frejus Saint Raphael30981337:5035
12Limonest30971436:4934
13FC Bobigny 93307111229:3132
14Toulon308101238:4731
15Saint Priest30791435:5030
16Rousset Ste Victoire30262228:7612