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Itabaiana vs Barra SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025 Estadio Etelvino Mendonca, Itabaiana
Itabaiana Logo

Itabaiana

4 - 2
FT
Barra SE Logo

Barra SE

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Jackson
42' Event
Ronaldo
45' Event
Ronaldo
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Itabaiana in this Sergipano 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Itabaiana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Itabaiana
15%
Draws
73%
Barra SE
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Barra SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

12% / Low Confidence
  • Barra SE have won more games recently than Itabaiana.
  • Model gives Itabaiana a 12% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Itabaiana Clean Sheet 68%
Barra SE Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabaiana Barra SE
Matches Played 31 26
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 6
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.9 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2025 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Barra SE
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabaiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Jackson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Luis F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Barra SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronaldo
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabaiana 59 / 100
Barra SE 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabaiana Barra SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabaiana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Itabaiana scored in 61% of their last 31 outings.

Barra SE let in goals in 73% of their last 26 matches.

Difficult form: Barra SE registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itabaiana VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabaiana

(Home)
29 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
Botafogo PB
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
16 Aug
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 0
Itabaiana
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
Page 1 of 7

Barra SE

(Away)
01 Mar
Itabaiana
4 : 2
Barra SE
22 Feb
Barra SE
0 : 2
Dorense
15 Feb
Confianca
8 : 1
Barra SE
09 Feb
Barra SE
1 : 0
America de Propria
03 Feb
Barra SE
3 : 2
Carmopolis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)