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Itabaiana vs SER Caxias do Sul - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estadio Etelvino Mendonca, Itabaiana
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Breno Santos
33'
Victor Sa
46'
Sub
Calyson In: Baptista Felix L.
Out: Calyson

AI Match Summary

The Serie C game between Itabaiana and SER Caxias do Sul finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SER Caxias do Sul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Itabaiana
20%
Draws
64%
SER Caxias do Sul
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: SER Caxias do Sul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Itabaiana haven't matched SER Caxias do Sul's recent run of results.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on SER Caxias do Sul taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Itabaiana Clean Sheet 22%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabaiana SER Caxias do Sul
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 9 9
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.8 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Serie C
Itabaiana vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:2
May 24, 2025 Serie C
Itabaiana vs SER Caxias do Sul
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabaiana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Top Goalscorer Breno Santos
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joao Lucas
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabaiana 29 / 100
SER Caxias do Sul 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabaiana SER Caxias do Sul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SER Caxias do Sul Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabaiana scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

SER Caxias do Sul's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: SER Caxias do Sul registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itabaiana VS SER Caxias do Sul
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabaiana

(Home)
29 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
Botafogo PB
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
16 Aug
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 0
Itabaiana
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
Page 1 of 6

SER Caxias do Sul

(Away)
29 Aug
SER Caxias do Sul
0 : 0
Internacional de Limeira
22 Aug
Santa Cruz
2 : 0
SER Caxias do Sul
16 Aug
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2
Figueirense
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
26 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2
Botafogo PB
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 28:19 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 28:22 32
3 Ferroviaria 19 8 6 5 22:15 30
4 Maringa FC 19 8 6 5 32:30 30
5 Floresta EC 19 8 6 5 22:20 30
6 Internacional de Limeira 19 8 6 5 22:20 30
7 Paysandu PA 19 9 2 8 26:27 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 20:15 29
9 Ypiranga FC 19 8 5 6 27:24 29
10 Guarani 19 7 7 5 34:24 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 19:22 28
12 Maranhao 19 7 6 6 19:18 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 21:23 26
14 SER Caxias do Sul 19 6 7 6 17:16 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 18:21 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 13:25 21
17 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 19 5 6 8 21:21 21
18 Anapolis 19 5 4 10 17:22 19
19 Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 14:27 17
20 Confianca 19 3 4 12 11:20 13
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)