Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Itabirito vs Tombense

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes, Nova Lima
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Pedro Oliveira
17' Event
Julio Cesar
22'
Pedro Rodrigues

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro game between Itabirito and Tombense finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tombense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Itabirito
30%
Draws
35%
Tombense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tombense come out ahead of Itabirito on wins alone.
  • 35% — that's where the model lands on Tombense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Itabirito Clean Sheet 18%
Tombense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabirito Tombense
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 10
Draws 10 11
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Mineiro
Itabirito vs Tombense
2:3
Jan 22, 2025 Mineiro
Tombense vs Itabirito
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabirito Compare

Top Goalscorer Denzel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Tombense Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Oliveira
1 Goals
Assists Leader Julio Cesar
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabirito 20 / 100
Tombense 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabirito Tombense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tombense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabirito scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Tombense let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Itabirito went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Tombense
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabirito

(Home)
14 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 7
Atletico-MG
06 Feb
Betim FC
0 : 2
Itabirito
01 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 3
Tombense
24 Jan
URT
2 : 1
Itabirito
21 Jan
Uberlandia
0 : 1
Itabirito
Page 1 of 6

Tombense

(Away)
27 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
CRAC
21 Jun
CRAC
1 : 0
Tombense
14 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
30 May
Porto-BA
1 : 3
Tombense
23 May
Tombense
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico-MG 8 3 5 0 16:8 14
2 URT 8 3 2 3 7:7 11
3 Uberlandia 8 2 3 3 8:12 9
4 Democrata GV 8 2 1 5 3:8 7
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America MG 8 4 3 1 10:6 15
2 Pouso Alegre 8 4 1 3 14:14 13
3 Tombense 8 3 3 2 10:7 12
4 Betim FC 8 2 3 3 6:9 9
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cruzeiro 8 5 0 3 14:7 15
2 North Esporte Clube 8 3 2 3 14:11 11
3 Itabirito 8 2 1 5 10:17 7
4 Athletic Club 8 1 4 3 7:13 7
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)