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Stadium Background

Itabuna vs Bahia de Feira

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
de Moura V.

AI Match Summary

The Baiano 2 2025 game between Itabuna and Bahia de Feira finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Itabuna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Itabuna
20%
Draws
34%
Bahia de Feira
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Itabuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Itabuna carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Itabuna Clean Sheet 68%
Bahia de Feira Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabuna Bahia de Feira
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 11
Draws 10 9
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.26 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.65 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 15, 2025 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs Bahia de Feira
1:0
Jan 23, 2024 Baiano
Itabuna vs Bahia de Feira
1:1
Feb 12, 2023 Baiano
Bahia de Feira vs Itabuna
4:0
Apr 4, 2012 Baiano
Bahia de Feira vs Itabuna
2:1
Jan 25, 2012 Baiano
Itabuna vs Bahia de Feira
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabuna Compare

Top Goalscorer de Moura V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.5
Avg xA / game 0.33

Bahia de Feira Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabuna 41 / 100
Bahia de Feira 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabuna Bahia de Feira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabuna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabuna scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Bahia de Feira's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Itabuna remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Itabuna VS Bahia de Feira
0.8 Goals Scored 1.5
0.2 Goals Conceded 0.5
20% Over 1.5 63%
20% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabuna

(Home)
13 Jul
Itabuna
0 : 1
Galicia
06 Jul
Galicia
0 : 0
Itabuna
29 Jun
SSA
0 : 0
Itabuna
15 Jun
Itabuna
1 : 0
Bahia de Feira
08 Jun
Teixeira de Freitas
0 : 3
Itabuna
Page 1 of 7

Bahia de Feira

(Away)
22 Feb
Jacuipense
3 : 1
Bahia de Feira
18 Feb
Vitoria
1 : 0
Bahia de Feira
11 Feb
Bahia de Feira
6 : 1
Barcelona FC
04 Feb
Galicia
1 : 2
Bahia de Feira
29 Jan
Bahia de Feira
1 : 2
Jequie
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Itabuna 9 7 2 0 20:7 23
2 Bahia de Feira 9 6 2 1 28:5 20
3 Fluminense de Feira 9 6 2 1 16:5 20
4 Galicia 9 4 3 2 20:9 15
5 EC Ypiranga 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
6 Vitoria da Conquista 8 3 2 3 8:11 11
7 SSA 9 2 4 3 10:8 10
8 Leonico 8 2 1 5 12:20 7
9 Grapiuna 9 0 1 8 4:31 1
10 Teixeira de Freitas 9 0 1 8 0:24 0
Promotion - Baiano 2 2025 (Play Offs)